Movies · resolved market
Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5142eff19d9c3e22dc6570ca8ad66eb20888205968ffac6ff95a3d9681785800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 66c | 2,861$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.81 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 35c | 1,252$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.37 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 61c | 699.33$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.58 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 18c | 681.13$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 76c | 628.21$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 65c | 516.22$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.68 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 69c | 447.54$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.15 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 27c | 386.09$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 5c | 349.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…e4d5backed Yes | 67c | 313.18$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 261$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 62c | 256.91$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 34c | 242.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 225.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 79c | 179$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 40c | 155$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 10c | 135.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 77c | 107.25$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 60c | 103.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 99.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 71c | 87.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 86.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 37c | 84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 77c | 80.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 30c | 68.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 29c | 60.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 30c | 59.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 18c | 59.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…59afbacked No | 24c | 59.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 57c | 55.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 34c | 44.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…6c6cbacked Yes | 50c | 40.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 29c | 38.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…d0d3backed Yes | 79c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?this page
- Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?No won
- Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?No won
- Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.