Movies · resolved market
Will "Sinners" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c7a34d27e78990445911dc2f8ed322360d63850bcd2d05cf3e8602dcbd44774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 42c | 1,345$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 56c | 917$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 58c | 860$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 58c | 801$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 46c | 674$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.04 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 42c | 619$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed No | 58c | 539$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked Yes | 54c | 520$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 61c | 507$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.27 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 53c | 495$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 39c | 484$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 47c | 456$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.32 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked No | 44c | 452$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 63c | 425.8$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.03 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 52c | 400$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.54 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 43c | 329.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.91 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 44c | 309$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6797backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 54c | 264$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 46c | 264$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 56c | 261.03$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed Yes | 47c | 256$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 44c | 238.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed No | 43c | 238$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 57c | 238$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 216$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 34c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 51c | 193.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 53c | 170.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed No | 47c | 163$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked No | 44c | 156$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 54c | 154$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 54c | 133$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 42c | 122.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…0caebacked Yes | 42c | 109$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 53c | 107.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 46c | 102.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 63c | 95.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed No | 55c | 91.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 43c | 84.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 81.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 45c | 79.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 52c | 55.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 53.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…59afbacked No | 49c | 52.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…f792backed Yes | 60c | 50.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed No | 47c | 47.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 44c | 36.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…5fbebacked Yes | 58c | 34.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27f…61dabacked Yes | 63c | 31.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 47c | 24.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Sinners" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will "Blue Moon" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "It Was Just an Accident" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "The Secret Agent" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Weapons" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.