Us Midterms · resolved market
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x084f6697c5406db79ea3bc2f45e92c4c554d09806272f6c2ea90742503c178af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $308,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $302,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 423 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 71c | 20,048$14,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,735.43 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 27c | 16,167$4,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,431.63 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f6…1905backed Yes | 65c | 10,656$6,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,704.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes | 70c | 10,000$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 30c | 9,045$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,684.63 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 10c | 8,736$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,862.06 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.45per pick | 39cpaid | +227.2%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 49c | 8,223$4,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,064.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 25c | 5,122$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.29 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e7…9948backed Yes | 79c | 3,599$2,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 58c | 3,586$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.33 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…0371backed Yes | 74c | 3,341$2,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 46c | 3,246$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.17 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42af…048dbacked Yes | 75c | 2,845$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 52c | 2,833$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.63 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes | 77c | 2,815$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes | 60c | 2,607$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.93 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +82%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 35c | 2,564$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff4…a15bbacked Yes | 72c | 2,375$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked No | 3c | 2,254$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 41c | 2,193$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.99 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -76%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 51c | 1,989$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 73c | 1,906$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.67 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 40c | 1,867$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 62c | 1,824$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.76 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 33c | 1,774$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.21 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed No | 72c | 1,695$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…7dcfbacked Yes | 65c | 1,627$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed Yes | 60c | 1,594$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 45c | 1,537$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.64 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 38c | 1,512$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 30c | 1,250$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.06 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 50c | 1,231$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.79 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed No | 42c | 1,204$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 39c | 1,185$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.37 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked No | 39c | 1,183$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 52c | 1,160$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…8de1backed No | 44c | 1,139$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes | 60c | 1,133$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 63c | 1,111$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,094$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.67 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 74c | 1,009$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.95 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 57c | 999.95$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 73c | 999.92$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.98 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bd…36f0backed Yes | 61c | 986.32$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 61c | 976.51$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.84 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 31c | 950.76$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.79 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb636…8580backed Yes | 68c | 840$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 62c | 809.57$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…e210backed Yes | 63c | 795.57$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 57c | 769.19$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.83 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 37c | 768$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 42c | 750.94$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.56 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 65c | 750$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…03a9backed Yes | 76c | 740$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 14c | 737.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 25c | 721.28$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 14c | 715$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.55 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…0f65backed Yes | 61c | 709.99$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 23c | 700$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 27c | 667.06$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 57c | 659$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 58c | 657.67$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.87 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed Yes | 69c | 655.12$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 60c | 651.14$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…3248backed Yes | 62c | 640$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…aecebacked No | 41c | 637.11$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +103%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 53c | 602.49$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…999ebacked Yes | 64c | 600.08$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 599.98$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.99 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Yes | 54c | 599.98$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…ff95backed Yes | 33c | 596.36$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 48c | 574.3$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.66 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 561.45$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.83 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed No | 26c | 555.63$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.44 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 69c | 527.99$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed No | 58c | 527.22$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 69c | 513$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 54c | 506.99$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.31 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 66c | 504$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…302dbacked No | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x559a…f054backed Yes | 71c | 499.99$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 499.99$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.29 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 58c | 499.97$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 475.56$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.74 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…8f3fbacked Yes | 75c | 470$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6285…3ae5backed Yes | 68c | 465.99$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a19…8f5bbacked No | 36c | 460$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…269bbacked Yes | 70c | 460$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe027…c490backed Yes | 70c | 459.99$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…a231backed No | 41c | 455.36$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 74c | 436.18$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.34 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 53c | 430$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…2573backed Yes | 55c | 427$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes | 61c | 415$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff9…795abacked Yes | 15c | 413.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +511.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?this page
- Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?No won
- Will Jasmine Crockett and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?No won
- Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?No won
- Will Jasmine Crockett and Wesley Hunt be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?No won
- Will two candidates other than the listed pairs be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.