TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$308,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$302,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,863 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 423 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes71c20,048$14,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,735.4315150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No27c16,167$4,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,431.635545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8f6…1905backed Yes65c10,656$6,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,704.95540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes70c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No30c9,045$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,684.6321033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed Yes10c8,736$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,862.061283.3%10 W · 2 L+5.4wins+0.45per pick39cpaid+227.2%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No49c8,223$4,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,064.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No25c5,122$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.298638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e7…9948backed Yes79c3,599$2,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes58c3,586$2,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.333145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3b9…0371backed Yes74c3,341$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes46c3,246$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.174744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x42af…048dbacked Yes75c2,845$2,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes52c2,833$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.6324433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes77c2,815$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes60c2,607$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.931586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.2wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+82%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked No35c2,564$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.66933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff4…a15bbacked Yes72c2,375$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.623100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked No3c2,254$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.893920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes41c2,193$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.74580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+78.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed No61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.992114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-76%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x15d4…6dddbacked No51c1,989$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.75944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x593c…72debacked Yes73c1,906$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.671513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-75.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed No40c1,867$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes62c1,824$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.763046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No33c1,774$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.2112440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed No72c1,695$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+248.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b2…7dcfbacked Yes65c1,627$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b1…7754backed Yes60c1,594$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No45c1,537$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.641717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No38c1,512$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.56825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-52.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed No30c1,250$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.062842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No50c1,231$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.796653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf808…6e99backed No42c1,204$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes39c1,185$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.371612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked No39c1,183$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.37540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes52c1,160$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…8de1backed No44c1,139$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes60c1,133$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.03837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed Yes63c1,111$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes59c1,094$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.677731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes74c1,009$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.954425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes57c999.95$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.981040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes73c999.92$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.982330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bd…36f0backed Yes61c986.32$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes61c976.51$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.845145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed No31c950.76$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.794953.1%26 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb636…8580backed Yes68c840$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes62c809.57$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.564100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+94.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87dd…e210backed Yes63c795.57$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes57c769.19$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.838550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed No37c768$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes42c750.94$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.567925.3%20 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes65c750$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b00…03a9backed Yes76c740$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes14c737.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.681233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+129.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No25c721.28$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.682729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes14c715$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.552740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b22…0f65backed Yes61c709.99$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes23c700$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5391776.5%13 W · 4 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+69.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked No27c667.06$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.112630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes57c659$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.37666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes58c657.67$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.875350.9%27 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a70…18f0backed Yes69c655.12$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes60c651.14$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.621154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4a0…3248backed Yes62c640$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…aecebacked No41c637.11$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.31650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+103%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes53c602.49$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.871338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x326e…999ebacked Yes64c600.08$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd509…d6b7backed Yes65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9892…0a7bbacked No35c600$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes52c599.98$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.9931434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c9…8174backed Yes54c599.98$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb2…ff95backed Yes33c596.36$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No48c574.3$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.664835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No36c561.45$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8321155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed No26c555.63$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.443321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes69c527.99$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.68560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a2…0020backed No58c527.22$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes69c513$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.031127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No54c506.99$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.3124861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed Yes66c504$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc7…302dbacked No64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x559a…f054backed Yes71c499.99$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No65c499.99$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.293857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes58c499.97$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.995750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No36c475.56$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7433421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x70ed…8f3fbacked Yes75c470$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6285…3ae5backed Yes68c465.99$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a19…8f5bbacked No36c460$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2749…269bbacked Yes70c460$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe027…c490backed Yes70c459.99$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1382100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc72…a231backed No41c455.36$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes74c436.18$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.345234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No53c430$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2283070%21 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f9…2573backed Yes55c427$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.152147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes61c415$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcff9…795abacked Yes15c413.35$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.214100%4 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+511.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.