TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,342

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes29c11,183$3,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,258.2915150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd49…0d55backed Yes7c6,349$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.7933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No70c5,417$3,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.814452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Yes14c4,679$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.732623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid+62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x593c…72debacked Yes19c4,238$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.321513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-75.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes17c3,141$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.7524433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes21c1,940$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.614936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed Yes20c1,929$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.83321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c1,564$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.9233421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf64…ad49backed Yes31c1,500$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes31c1,248$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.6540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b69…fda4backed Yes32c1,225$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes28c1,132$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.34837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes15c1,110$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9419631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c6e…de7fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes18c959$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.116154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No79c900$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1938550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes19c829.67$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.643951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes19c699.99$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1344015%6 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc548…f26abacked Yes11c641.35$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No77c627.68$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.9512440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf808…6e99backed No69c599.99$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02e6…56b6backed Yes22c588.97$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb680…0db6backed Yes11c580.39$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes19c551.72$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.881520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes26c547.84$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.691717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7071…91dfbacked Yes19c532.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No78c506.02$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.333857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes21c403.74$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.362339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c400$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11431534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No71c360$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.9742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No71c334.94$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3121155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes19c323.1$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.54933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c322.88$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7712150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes19c318.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.022634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes28c318$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.922245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c288.32$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.676653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffea…62fcbacked No69c285.5$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes11c280.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.92128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-59.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes30c231.24$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.615018%9 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde88…144cbacked Yes25c202.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.569819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9026…0564backed Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1773…8c09backed No68c200$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd54…b332backed Yes15c199.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes17c199.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.817925.3%20 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked No72c199.22$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.162437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No79c194.47$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.221560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f74…6e19backed Yes16c192.97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes28c188.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9816632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced2…1076backed Yes29c180$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-53%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64c2…d561backed No76c171.42$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+67.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c170.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.979010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9c49…1d27backed Yes13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed No71c141.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.62771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x382b…1e8abacked Yes31c137$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes23c136.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.998258.5%48 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed No73c135.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc245…bccbbacked No79c133.1$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.78742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59e3…3a39backed Yes28c125$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ae…be02backed Yes18c124.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-76%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3075…b6a6backed Yes19c120$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf10…557ebacked Yes30c111.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa30f…b10ebacked Yes19c103$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a73…c046backed Yes17c100.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.67520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1626…be12backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad6…cc62backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+16.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca6c…5c67backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf3…b88fbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2b…2bd6backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No74c98.75$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.481250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9e…95c3backed Yes21c98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c96.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4513317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9e7…c354backed No68c94.65$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…0a51backed No79c93$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.53366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae00…f6c8backed Yes18c92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d3…ad22backed Yes21c91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No78c90$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x459f…169fbacked Yes16c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ec…0fb3backed Yes18c86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed Yes17c83.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8d…3027backed No80c80$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.31866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x517e…dd65backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+118.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes21c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.527222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed No70c58.44$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.531030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-59.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb376…3ecebacked Yes20c58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.561338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cb…c0d4backed No70c57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0750…803ebacked No72c55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No79c51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.894055%22 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89bd…b641backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf596…9b88backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba3…27e2backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf01e…0aa6backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee6…99ffbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c14…9a66backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f5…67abbacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5d…9838backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.