TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$209,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes49c11,341$5,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,577.87944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No30c10,484$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,344.01580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+78.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes41c5,051$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.45545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed Yes15c4,460$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.33321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes34c4,091$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.811330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6735…f5b7backed No33c3,086$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,073.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+204.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes74c2,935$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.582524%6 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes22c2,667$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.0324433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes8c2,572$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.294630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No59c2,543$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.133145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes3c2,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked No60c2,395$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.191586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.2wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+82%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c2,375$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.1533238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes10c2,362$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.72634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73b8…f6b5backed No21c2,357$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,873.67955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+110.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes38c2,255$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.844425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f6…1905backed Yes40c2,226$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes12c2,071$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.752040%8 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+101.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No18c2,058$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,694.971040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No43c2,030$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed Yes61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.992114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-76%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes4c1,960$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.773920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a73…c046backed Yes15c1,907$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.93520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed Yes38c1,730$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309f…b99cbacked No41c1,707$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes9c1,702$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.233951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbea5…c857backed No28c1,700$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+262.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes8c1,516$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.374452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c1,408$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.89244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe554…ee0ebacked Yes33c1,305$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.89837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes11c1,229$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.82740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes13c1,159$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6516544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes61c999.99$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61031534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes50c941.93$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.83026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes11c894.01$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.892326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes11c892$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.12944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No58c874.82$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.6824831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcff9…795abacked No18c850.5$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.844100%4 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+511.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes16c841.95$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.956132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed Yes39c800$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3123246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes11c797$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.67812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…aecebacked Yes30c784.04$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.21650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+103%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x231e…9297backed No19c771.74$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+436.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69a1…379abacked Yes34c751.29$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+187.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No46c668.43$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.531717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9995…d0d3backed No19c652$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.121241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No79c648.94$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1358550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed No62c614$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No37c603.89$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.17731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked No62c572$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.36862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No58c560.39$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.375350.9%27 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes41c555$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.552630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c553.62$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.84816.2%5 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed No62c544$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes11c528$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes51c507.91$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.723321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc990…6a32backed Yes12c506.14$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.74540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd262…c312backed No25c480.58$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+205.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb237…d8d0backed Yes43c461.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes9c449.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.59819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes9c436.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.471612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c434.12$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.051042.9%3 W · 101 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes78c420.38$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.572842.9%12 W · 16 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-35.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No79c412.79$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.733857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes59c380$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.23043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf61f…c8b2backed No25c370.37$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.084100%4 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No22c360.22$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.972657.7%15 W · 11 L+9.0wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+138.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes11c349.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb27…0dd4backed No38c328.45$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+160.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1c3…f0f4backed Yes13c321.9$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8954…704bbacked Yes41c318.89$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.21450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes58c308.61$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.914238.1%16 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes68c300$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes75c300$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2252128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf6…5525backed No51c290$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes9c286.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.413910.3%4 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c281.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4113317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x89fa…da19backed Yes57c278.41$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Yes43c263.89$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.75540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x074b…a249backed Yes59c254.24$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Yes41c250.09$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No75c248.78$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3612440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes46c245.88$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9334129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes48c241.79$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.724835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes50c240$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e6a…7dfdbacked Yes42c232.5$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed No75c222.91$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.82445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d12…0fa7backed Yes43c218.18$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No60c206.91$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7213647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c7…d291backed Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x311c…d7cebacked Yes35c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes25c190.94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.855018%9 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc91a…6630backed Yes42c190.47$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes50c167.43$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.836845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…6a27backed Yes43c167.3$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No54c164$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.448638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bb0…3231backed Yes11c160$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4880…7a20backed Yes43c156.82$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.