Movies · resolved market
Will Wuthering Heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b322fec259f7057790d8a569b1626ac53ea6c0032129bc79748d5ee2e19ac6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 29c | 6,495$1,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.53 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 71c | 3,674$2,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.46 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…5de1backed Yes | 1c | 3,249$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 36c | 2,136$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.96 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 67c | 2,135$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 71c | 1,937$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…37b5backed Yes | 8c | 1,554$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 40c | 1,030$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 11c | 1,011$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 29c | 716.57$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.4 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 36c | 665.44$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.6 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 601.96$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.07 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 5c | 549.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Yes | 37c | 546.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 516.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 20c | 474.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 460.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 5c | 382$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 378.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 37c | 359.43$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.04 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 71c | 227.76$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…1936backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 173.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 162.15$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 61c | 155.56$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 151.71$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 32c | 138.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 67c | 119.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…9a86backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 67c | 96.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed No | 75c | 84.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 35c | 79.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked Yes | 16c | 67.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 43.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb479…78ecbacked Yes | 31c | 43.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 39c | 38.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e8…f0f9backed No | 71c | 36.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…2d18backed No | 71c | 31.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 29.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…59afbacked No | 71c | 24.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…1008backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wuthering Heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend?this page
- Will GOAT be the highest grossing movie this weekend?Yes won
- Will I Can Only Imagine 2 be the highest grossing movie this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.