Movies · resolved market
Will GOAT be the highest grossing movie this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeb6604cd9239f5aa4170b3bc0acdec593c49aae25920f7995efa5aff4831a86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 58c | 1,773$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.78 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 63c | 968.23$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 54c | 809.34$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.45 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 35c | 699.45$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.13 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 591.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 26c | 573.71$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 42c | 558.83$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.48 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 65c | 502.01$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 75c | 433.75$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 19c | 400$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 61c | 399.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…10e6backed Yes | 66c | 379.62$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 30c | 328.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 77c | 254.87$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 68c | 236.07$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 65c | 221.48$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 57c | 190.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 40c | 170.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes | 66c | 170$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 163.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 67c | 145$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 37c | 135.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 60c | 133.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed Yes | 57c | 133$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6232…f92abacked Yes | 64c | 125.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 69c | 97.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…37b5backed Yes | 69c | 92.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…5fbebacked Yes | 65c | 61.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…a36dbacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…4a01backed Yes | 59c | 45.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…d732backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 36c | 31.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…488bbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 55c | 23.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…7abdbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639b…7383backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 67c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GOAT be the highest grossing movie this weekend?this page
- Will I Can Only Imagine 2 be the highest grossing movie this weekend?No won
- Will Wuthering Heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.