TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,951 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes70c8,212$5,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,442.3129926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc853…9d37backed No40c3,395$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.932548%12 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc774…f218backed Yes69c2,164$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes66c2,015$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.6348236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a6…8fb7backed No30c1,954$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.88650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed No30c1,807$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No38c1,564$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.047448.6%36 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes70c1,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4505362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked No50c1,254$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No30c1,138$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.728528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x611f…1f84backed Yes59c1,118$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes24c999.55$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.4517821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No41c974$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.343740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes57c962.15$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.0423741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No30c944.93$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.553938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No45c915$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.751656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes68c799.9$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.971060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No34c746.89$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.6123041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes50c675$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.53100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+51.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No37c653.68$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.9210244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes67c647$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.9618444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No32c615.92$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1323130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes62c614$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.321353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes68c596.73$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.952944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes65c593.25$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.897931.6%25 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No32c588.35$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.271136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes63c547$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.657936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No76c535$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.61361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes64c516.32$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.114544.4%20 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes63c507.75$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.661637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No37c497.67$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.254930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked Yes70c497.14$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.142740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Yes49c488$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.882850%14 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked No50c480$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No30c475.36$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6136538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes55c460$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2071625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked Yes55c455$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.753748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5372…5f61backed Yes51c452$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.481266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe132…ca8dbacked Yes69c432.52$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.52944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa457…1a93backed No38c402$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.761957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb835…2e51backed No42c400.9$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681650%8 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+79.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked No30c368$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-62.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes59c361$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.011163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No45c349.88$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0416741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde5…676cbacked Yes55c341.96$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf937…53a1backed No47c330.32$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.18862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked No31c292.38$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.182245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No30c272.05$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.062937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked No41c272$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.521040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Yes65c265$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.143923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No46c256.39$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.951,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed No35c254.5$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.945444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88fc…74a4backed Yes69c253.9$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.08955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No30c252.63$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes69c250$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.82240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked Yes68c250$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick68cpaid-38.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes59c243.77$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4110632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes59c239.42$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.944734%16 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0367…1c15backed Yes49c238$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.38540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No29c234.66$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.167020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70e7…4a70backed No41c233$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b79…360fbacked No38c212$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.561471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+42.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes62c211$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.483815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-70.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c200$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15447328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No48c199.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.098752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes69c199.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625957.6%34 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No46c199.01$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0513337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked No50c195$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.52147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No42c189.39$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.61,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0192…ba59backed Yes65c184.94$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.942744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No33c162.64$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8115641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked No43c162$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.661850%9 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b2…5548backed Yes69c160.04$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.381741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes63c159$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3624634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes55c148.3$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3412938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5e…b57dbacked Yes68c147.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed Yes68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.062227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf47f…c0b2backed Yes69c145.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.36366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Yes69c144.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.294100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+121.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbfc…e387backed No35c142.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.691717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed No29c141.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.033240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe478…28eabacked Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes71c140.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.14875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No32c138.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.745215.4%8 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes73c137.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.561145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No34c136$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.542552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x636a…ec94backed Yes68c130.65$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.65966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a2…c8dbbacked No46c128$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed Yes65c127.14$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453c…ae42backed Yes68c123.35$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.471250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b6…bb42backed No32c123$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea80…e26abacked No46c123$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaddf…ce76backed Yes61c122.28$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48b2…114abacked No33c122$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No40c121.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc51…f26cbacked No46c121$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No28c120.85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2416015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xd470…d7c2backed No46c120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.