Movies · resolved market
Will Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf6d84a0cc4546db8da4953c3f2aea4309806e1d609c2c5ec3bb9a77c4ce99da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,251 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,953$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.35 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,393$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.38 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…d5fdbacked Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 13c | 808$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 774.7$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 16c | 620$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 19c | 462$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 15c | 446$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes | 19c | 336$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 16c | 335$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…3c90backed Yes | 16c | 267.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 15c | 239$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 13c | 216$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2813…2323backed Yes | 25c | 196.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 12c | 154.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…5548backed Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 139.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…60a6backed Yes | 23c | 120.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…61e2backed Yes | 14c | 105.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 74c | 103.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 16c | 103$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…45b1backed Yes | 15c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…3427backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ffd4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 16c | 95.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd340…5f1abacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 17c | 65.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 61.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Children no More: Were and Are Gone win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Perfectly a Strangeness win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Devil Is Busy win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.