Movies · resolved market
Will The Devil Is Busy win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb27bd3ebb15ff580464cb67555958a825adf12091c240c1bc9286adf20919b99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,477 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 13c | 4,195$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.08 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,303$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.86 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 15c | 1,901$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.03 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,849$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 10c | 854.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 13c | 762$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 11c | 720$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 712.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 11c | 458.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 14c | 422.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…2dc5backed Yes | 11c | 410.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed No | 72c | 210$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked Yes | 11c | 174$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 173.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 11c | 155$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed Yes | 13c | 145.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 9c | 116.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 11c | 98.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 23c | 86.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…1aa8backed Yes | 15c | 68.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 58.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Devil Is Busy win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Children no More: Were and Are Gone win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Perfectly a Strangeness win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.