Earnings · resolved market
Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5df82da99ee50977056e0d4c1a13608cf9fbe091259037ba49aaf42a0e3fed46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,877 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 24c | 2,654$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.47 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 71c | 1,373$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.16 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…0a51backed Yes | 73c | 953$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 7c | 710.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 6c | 620.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 8c | 603.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 6c | 600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed No | 8c | 539$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 7c | 411.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec0…96debacked No | 5c | 348.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…0695backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 24c | 293.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 6c | 283.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 30c | 277.49$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 22c | 266.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b0…cf23backed No | 7c | 251.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…4d45backed Yes | 71c | 246.5$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 7c | 234.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 7c | 234.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 199.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 6c | 194.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 6c | 185.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 23c | 178$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 12c | 162.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9458…c97fbacked No | 28c | 148.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 110.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 80.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912b…9156backed No | 29c | 53.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…59afbacked No | 28c | 47.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed No | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…7601backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 29.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…0bfcbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.