Olympics · resolved market
Will Italy win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5526a171a9948eb0d08c1cedaebee30ddd8c18ad8661f57b25c9b0feaa3faf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 17c | 15,875$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.21 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,871$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed No | 0c | 6,845$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 49c | 2,837$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.63 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 55c | 2,143$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.75 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Yes | 63c | 1,911$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 7c | 1,257$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed No | 53c | 1,081$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed No | 23c | 971.51$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.53 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…10e6backed Yes | 61c | 875.55$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…08fbbacked Yes | 56c | 810.48$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 48c | 603.54$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 5c | 544.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 37c | 539.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 8c | 522.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 473.77$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.58 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed Yes | 57c | 429.52$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 59c | 383.93$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.93 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 15c | 371.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 70c | 366.62$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 14c | 304$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 9c | 244.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637f…554bbacked Yes | 49c | 145.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed No | 8c | 141.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f64…6ddfbacked Yes | 75c | 133.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 40c | 113.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfad…7443backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…2804backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…fb1dbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…d3ddbacked Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9288…b33dbacked Yes | 55c | 90.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…b968backed Yes | 56c | 89.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…ae96backed Yes | 57c | 87.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 31c | 78.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…756cbacked No | 32c | 75.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 42c | 74.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked Yes | 70c | 68.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d9…150cbacked No | 30c | 67.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…c15fbacked No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…59afbacked No | 35c | 47.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 30c | 43.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 35c | 42.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc63…d7b4backed Yes | 75c | 40.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…0822backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked Yes | 75c | 33.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6968…4ff5backed Yes | 75c | 33.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 80c | 32.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 73c | 27.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…bc9ebacked Yes | 54c | 26.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa236…b91cbacked Yes | 75c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeff…6fdfbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f5…0fedbacked Yes | 77c | 14.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Canada win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Germany win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Japan win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Netherlands win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.