Olympics · resolved market
Will Germany win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b35c2dc44d31b5c713b5685105516a507823959465cd105120efee0c7f5f18e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 10c | 12,815$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.27 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked No | 79c | 8,450$6,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.81 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 25c | 6,155$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.52 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 19c | 1,926$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.16 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,514$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…d092backed Yes | 5c | 1,240$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,144$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…efe9backed Yes | 16c | 1,057$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9288…b33dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,046$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 968.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes | 13c | 797.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed Yes | 10c | 768.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…0390backed Yes | 10c | 715.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 682.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…04ecbacked Yes | 12c | 613.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 6c | 581.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…dc73backed Yes | 15c | 565$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 2c | 564.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…756cbacked Yes | 16c | 418.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5335backed Yes | 14c | 416.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6d86backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfad…7443backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 290.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…0871backed Yes | 10c | 247.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 237.13$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 8c | 225.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Yes | 36c | 218$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 15c | 201.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 73c | 188$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 188$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2553…6426backed Yes | 35c | 141.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 23c | 109.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 24c | 108.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a2…a61cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdace…abe8backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 11c | 93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa79…d773backed Yes | 15c | 84.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…e8dbbacked Yes | 33c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…6663backed Yes | 15c | 64.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 17c | 61.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa236…b91cbacked No | 77c | 51.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2049…d998backed No | 78c | 35.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3c…3ebcbacked No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…21cabacked No | 78c | 24.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Canada win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Japan win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Netherlands win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.