TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x65a0…efe9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
72
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Olympics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Olympics at 52 out of 100; worst Tweets at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST190%0 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.29
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.34
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.18
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.56
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.56
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+525%+$529.2
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.05
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.4
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.1
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.15
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.58
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.44
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.8
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$21.25
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+138.1%+$17.72
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$38.4
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+271.6%+$71.66
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+257.1%+$57.6
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.79
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.85
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$70
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$569.5
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.1
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.4
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.4
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$70.04
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+124.2%+$25.51
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$104.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+38.9%+$3.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.