Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb2529e742e9e1b17114e168ff952d3ccf83afadfcf32072589eb18d0753b39

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,651,815
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,022,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,651,815 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 632 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	140,976$846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$846.02	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	1c	126,190$1,668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,667.98	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	10c	56,907$5,693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,693.19	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	53,643$4,097 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,097.39	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	42c	30,020$12,699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,698.71	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	14,112$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.42	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	24c	13,569$3,312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,311.7	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	43c	13,105$5,626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,626.38	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	40c	12,089$4,846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,845.88	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes	30c	11,889$3,519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,518.67	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	24c	11,841$2,810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,810.47	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	6c	11,581$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.95	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	49c	11,431$5,564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,563.91	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	31c	11,241$3,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,440.26	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	24c	10,607$2,567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,567.41	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	24c	9,769$2,302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,302.34	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	21c	9,704$2,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,075.03	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	78c	8,580$6,663 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,916.42	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	3c	8,517$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.09	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	8,100$696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696.2	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	29c	7,579$2,218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,217.69	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	6,999$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.99	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	6,200$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.48	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	25c	5,700$1,418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,417.97	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	16c	5,529$907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,622.23	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	+114.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	30c	5,470$1,616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,616.13	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	52c	5,260$2,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,750	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Yes	6c	5,000$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	3cpaid	+78.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	28c	4,886$1,370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,370	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	15c	4,830$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$701.25	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	32c	4,763$1,547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,216.63	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	15c	4,749$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$706.72	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb33c…4ac3backed Yes	68c	4,674$3,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,187.84	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	+153.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes	4c	4,632$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	4,450$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.93	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	40c	4,376$1,751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,750.55	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	4,179$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.88	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	35c	4,006$1,387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,619.32	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd66…b9b1backed Yes	49c	4,000$1,948 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,948	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbc2…208abacked No	51c	4,000$2,052 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,948	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	46c	3,723$1,710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,709.65	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc08b…5226backed Yes	49c	3,600$1,746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,746	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x680a…4e11backed No	52c	3,600$1,854 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,746	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	52cpaid	+94.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	3,565$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.5	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	58c	3,557$2,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,063.87	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	14c	3,524$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	8c	3,311$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.58	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	3,270$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.61	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	53c	3,254$1,738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,737.92	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c49…5251backed Yes	49c	3,252$1,585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,585	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb229…481bbacked Yes	48c	3,172$1,522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,522.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	72c	3,127$2,252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$875.81	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	61c	3,109$1,896 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,213.49	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	11c	3,032$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	9c	3,029$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.12	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.62	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	3c	2,999$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	36c	2,972$1,084 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,083.9	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	2,941$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	37c	2,915$1,084 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,083.56	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	2,817$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.46	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	35c	2,775$978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$978.1	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	5c	2,767$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.84	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	35c	2,651$924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924.3	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	21c	2,645$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.68	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	32c	2,535$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$806.57	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	18c	2,531$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.07	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	63c	2,511$1,572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,572.23	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,433$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.09	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	23c	2,410$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.97	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea6…b8c1backed No	51c	2,400$1,229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,171.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5255…d8fbbacked Yes	49c	2,400$1,171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,171.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	7c	2,345$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.82	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No	32c	2,335$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,584.99	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc43…abf5backed No	78c	2,284$1,786 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.25	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	70cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	74c	2,250$1,659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,659	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	2,226$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed Yes	11c	2,162$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.98	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+4.1wins	+0.20per pick	9cpaid	+299.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	2,106$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.65	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	2,104$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.54	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	5c	2,073$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.63	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	33c	2,069$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.07	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	3c	2,038$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.95	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	8c	2,008$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.15	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73fa…5982backed Yes	16c	2,000$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	6c	2,000$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.35	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	40c	2,000$802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$802	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	1,958$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.39	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No	67c	1,952$1,308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$643.52	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-2.2wins	-0.37per pick	71cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	1,948$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	5c	1,936$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.88	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes	49c	1,927$938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$937.69	118	34.7%41 W · 77 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	11c	1,918$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.74	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	1,908$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.74	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	12c	1,886$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.72	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	11c	1,763$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.35	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	15c	1,739$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.37	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc19a…66bbbacked No	60c	1,700$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$680	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	7c	1,644$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	8c	1,620$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.61	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event