Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6fc0b315df700b27f67423cdfc670ca7b128870b6c7e129c433ddefab38af33

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $680,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $358,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $680,871 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	33,985$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$794.79	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	33,561$1,841 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,841.05	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	15,062$1,242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,241.86	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	13,463$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.25	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	3c	11,509$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.27	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	3c	11,348$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.8	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed Yes	1c	10,636$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.21	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	9,500$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.5	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	3c	8,525$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.45	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	8,174$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.22	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafcf…d662backed Yes	7c	7,747$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.68	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+46%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,271$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.08	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	6,995$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.15	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	5,978$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.3	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,115$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.99	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	5,110$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.57	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	4c	5,084$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.07	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	6c	5,027$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.5	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f11…a9dcbacked Yes	0c	4,603$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	4,269$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.96	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae2…05f2backed Yes	0c	4,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…f5a5backed Yes	6c	3,997$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.07	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,642$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	2c	3,589$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.57	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes	6c	3,571$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.13	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	3,406$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.36	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	9c	3,182$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.9	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	3,155$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.52	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	3,073$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.38	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	1c	2,851$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.62	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	11c	2,813$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5153…af7dbacked Yes	5c	2,812$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.96	97	30.9%30 W · 67 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-25%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	9c	2,770$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.19	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	11c	2,768$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.8	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	3c	2,719$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	2c	2,599$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	2,589$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.83	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	2,535$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.28	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	2,047$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.9	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Yes	1c	2,042$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.36	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22d7…84e0backed Yes	4c	1,994$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+3.2wins	+0.11per pick	16cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	1c	1,892$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c5…fbcfbacked Yes	3c	1,785$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.41	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	1,725$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	3c	1,712$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.74	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4864…1351backed Yes	10c	1,700$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.2	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,640$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	1,602$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.18	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	11c	1,600$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	7c	1,494$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.86	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	8c	1,414$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	1,400$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.2	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	1,353$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.87	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa6…1e21backed Yes	1c	1,344$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	10c	1,289$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.9	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	3c	1,268$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.41	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0a8…5f1abacked Yes	1c	1,252$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	2c	1,250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,164$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.58	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	10c	1,098$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.82	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	1,093$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629f…6babbacked Yes	1c	1,091$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	8c	1,086$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.87	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31cf…4cd0backed Yes	12c	1,041$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.57	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,013$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.17	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	11c	1,007$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.66	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.1	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b8…2349backed Yes	8c	994.79$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	10c	909$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.9	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	4c	838.45$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.86	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	802.47$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.39	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	10c	801.45$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.2	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	10c	769.98$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.3	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	2c	736$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x640b…978abacked Yes	10c	720.36$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.04	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	13c	700$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	699.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e84…d31cbacked Yes	4c	634.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.38	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5282…1208backed Yes	12c	616.67$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	10c	616.32$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.59	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes	11c	600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	12c	590$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.8	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe971…e480backed Yes	12c	546.17$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.54	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ab…482ebacked Yes	3c	525.46$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes	10c	504.35$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.56	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa926…8611backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	10c	499.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2f6…3839backed Yes	3c	498.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.07	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes	2c	490$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	60	11.7%7 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	8c	475$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	9c	466.67$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	9c	456.23$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.06	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event