Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3b988316fa9f96c6a1f0c97f9bf479acbb28b80c3acb2e179a78a436220189a

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,665,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $631,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,665,488 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	326,559$915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$914.74	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	164,223$2,294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,293.7	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	2c	49,756$1,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,116.15	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	41,500$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.37	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	32,069$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.22	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	29,466$1,234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,233.67	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a37…c99cbacked Yes	2c	24,109$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.11	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	20,374$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.98	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3901…41b5backed Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	19,479$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.48	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	15,247$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.59	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	13,565$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.24	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	12,688$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.56	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	11,587$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.59	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	11,281$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.31	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	11,000$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741.26	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	11,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	9,446$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	7c	8,582$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$568.77	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	4c	8,471$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.58	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	2c	7,735$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.18	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	4c	7,297$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.31	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	3c	7,228$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.41	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	1c	7,124$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	4c	6,913$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	6,622$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.85	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	6,403$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.11	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	6c	6,307$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.47	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	5,742$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.16	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes	10c	5,157$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.5	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	4,873$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.29	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes	1c	4,745$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.71	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	4,507$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.55	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	4,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	2c	4,247$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.23	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	3c	4,183$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.08	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	0c	4,100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.89	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa20…9262backed Yes	3c	4,000$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.5	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	2c	3,990$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.84	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	1c	3,925$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	1c	3,737$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.42	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,651$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.87	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…c7b4backed Yes	3c	3,643$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.36	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	3c	3,500$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.7	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	3,103$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.2	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	3,064$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	1c	3,054$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.97	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	3,049$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	1c	3,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63e3…7d85backed Yes	4c	2,900$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	3cpaid	+889.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	2c	2,884$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.36	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8a…a2ebbacked Yes	18c	2,795$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	2,726$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	1c	2,685$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.42	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,682$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.46	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	2c	2,514$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.26	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	4c	2,456$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.25	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	14c	2,433$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.42	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	2,391$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.87	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,358$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0757…7609backed Yes	10c	2,276$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.63	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+132.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Yes	2c	2,260$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.18	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	3cpaid	+78.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	2,193$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.82	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	2,154$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.58	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	5c	2,120$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.8	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6c…f0b6backed Yes	1c	2,116$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.84	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	10cpaid	+332.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	3c	2,018$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.25	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	5c	2,000$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.99	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	2,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.41	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…7057backed Yes	4c	2,000$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+342.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7463…5850backed Yes	13c	1,957$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.43	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.20per pick	30cpaid	-87%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	2c	1,920$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.18	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes	2c	1,800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.32	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes	1c	1,697$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x518d…5a2cbacked Yes	1c	1,686$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.69	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes	7c	1,669$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.62	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	1c	1,667$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	1c	1,640$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	3c	1,621$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	1c	1,600$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	4c	1,599$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	1,500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0308…a6f8backed Yes	7c	1,429$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc727…2b13backed Yes	2c	1,400$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	2c	1,400$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc60…997cbacked Yes	7c	1,360$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	+85.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	7c	1,347$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	2c	1,325$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	2c	1,250$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.81	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	1,240$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	6c	1,179$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.13	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	4c	1,121$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.56	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59b8…26b2backed Yes	10c	1,089$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.3	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18c4…ff00backed Yes	19c	1,048$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	+92.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	7c	1,032$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.26	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	12c	1,003$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.86	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+126.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96db…64e2backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event