Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc062e8061ec9fac059cd7a7db587ef278e450a8578693346343a96cbf47ede06

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $339,579
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $238,686

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,579 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5b8…7658backed Yes	0c	23,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	17,777$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.15	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	17,333$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.85	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	14,422$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.7	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed20…84f1backed Yes	0c	12,193$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	0c	12,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c5…fbcfbacked Yes	0c	6,345$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,620$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	5,099$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	4,300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	1c	3,874$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc17c…20ffbacked Yes	5c	3,800$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-90%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	3,699$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.58	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	3,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	7c	3,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.99	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	1c	2,501$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.12	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	5c	2,500$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	2,090$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.9	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	1,931$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.83	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	1,833$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.53	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	1,500$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.82	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	5c	1,500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	3c	1,400$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.2	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,267$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.88	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x267a…f31ebacked Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	7c	999.98$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	4c	897.31$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.89	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	813.71$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	6c	699.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31cf…4cd0backed Yes	9c	600$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.94	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	7c	599.54$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.39	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	536.62$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	519.32$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b8…e7d5backed Yes	7c	499.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	422.43$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.94	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	8c	399.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	6c	299.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	7c	281.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa014…52ebbacked Yes	6c	211.3$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event