Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3d7031f2479416c724408ea29b86368d06ec0234dead7ed520becf91039c4e1

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $515,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $332,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $515,387 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	101,222$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.28	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	13,577$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.18	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	1c	7,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	1c	6,069$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.35	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c5…fbcfbacked Yes	1c	6,060$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.31	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	5,188$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.25	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	1c	3,900$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.9	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	3,593$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.26	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	3,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,931$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.08	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,850$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	2,660$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,385$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.73	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17c…20ffbacked Yes	7c	2,100$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-90%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf52…513fbacked Yes	0c	2,038$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99ee…59fdbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	2,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,977$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.77	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	1,950$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.9	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	1,916$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.41	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4864…1351backed Yes	9c	1,900$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,852$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.17	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	1c	1,708$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.02	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	1,700$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	8c	1,700$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.99	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,648$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.66	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,600$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.4	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,560$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.85	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	2c	1,556$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.49	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	1,483$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.02	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31cf…4cd0backed Yes	11c	1,400$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.9	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…298bbacked Yes	8c	1,300$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,253$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.08	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,114$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.12	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	1,073$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6052…2186backed Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	7c	999.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	9c	997.96$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.82	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x128d…fc4abacked Yes	4c	986.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	970.85$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.15	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6bb…2d3abacked Yes	2c	899.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	46	37%17 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4071…3de4backed Yes	3c	890.86$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.73	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	843.55$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.69	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	817.27$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	3c	700$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.37	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	3c	683.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	621.43$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.21	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	7c	600$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	10c	590$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes	2c	580.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x267a…f31ebacked Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4720…5907backed Yes	4c	500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7137…20cabacked Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	8c	499.98$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b8…e7d5backed Yes	8c	499.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	3c	458.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	9c	449$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.04	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x560b…5bf9backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	8c	399.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90b1…aa63backed Yes	5c	347.43$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.36	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-52%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	334.1$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	8c	299.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed Yes	9c	220$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	26cpaid	-88.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	9c	216.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6bd…a17ebacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41af…68eabacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	7c	199$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	6c	180$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	9c	161.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	144$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3974…e5cebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a2c…0746backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event