Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c75ab978539f93165f2c26fe49ee1f49163147a9f598a346fb27cea5c81bf5a

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,063,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $402,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,063,399 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	186,397$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.39	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	48,247$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.43	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	36,899$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.72	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	30,970$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.28	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…fb91backed Yes	1c	27,748$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	0c	23,691$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.18	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3901…41b5backed Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	17,864$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	17,767$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.1	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	13,510$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	2c	13,454$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.24	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebd5…bf3ebacked Yes	0c	13,152$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	12,590$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	0c	11,667$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,218$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	9,346$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.78	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	8,707$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	3c	8,141$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	7,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	7,481$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.26	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	2c	7,433$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	7,102$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.97	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	6,966$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.87	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x881f…dfe9backed Yes	0c	6,930$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	1c	6,737$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.34	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	5,262$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.89	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	2c	4,955$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.3	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd410…7bd6backed Yes	0c	4,554$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	4,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes	0c	4,350$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.87	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	0c	4,327$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	0c	3,846$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.13	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes	1c	3,778$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.52	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	0c	3,545$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	0c	3,412$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	3,408$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.68	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	1c	3,161$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.68	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	1c	3,058$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.39	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	1c	2,902$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	2,866$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.37	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	1c	2,810$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.37	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd3…3a42backed Yes	2c	2,538$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.9	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	2,520$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.67	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,289$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	1c	2,226$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	2,222$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.72	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	1c	2,218$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	2c	2,171$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.18	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba87…dfa9backed Yes	1c	2,002$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	3c	2,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.57	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	2c	1,891$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	1,714$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	1c	1,704$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	1,659$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	1c	1,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	1c	1,404$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x518d…5a2cbacked Yes	1c	1,358$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1187…f591backed Yes	2c	1,326$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,282$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf887…92acbacked Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	1c	1,250$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	1c	1,151$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	1c	1,102$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16b7…7609backed Yes	1c	999.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	1c	911.73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.87	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18c4…ff00backed Yes	2c	910.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	+92.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes	2c	875.2$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes	2c	827.6$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.55	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	+38%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	1c	818.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e9…b681backed Yes	2c	780.67$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x006c…690bbacked Yes	2c	564.77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	444.8$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3558…f167backed Yes	3c	409.81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	5c	377.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31cf…4cd0backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event