Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd2b95bdf44878ddeeef2597c2a443f7ae08ea7bffbfaed4c37daf3e6871ff0b

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $613,038
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $329,785

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $613,038 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	39,743$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.66	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	25,000$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.8	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	18,094$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.98	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28e…eae6backed Yes	0c	17,935$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.03	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	16,912$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.14	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	11,144$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.89	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bc…ec29backed Yes	0c	10,425$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc88f…46d0backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	10,000$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.62	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	8,782$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.96	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,187$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.45	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2704…8a90backed Yes	0c	5,798$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	5,545$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.47	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e1…9d5abacked Yes	0c	5,353$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	5,229$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.48	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,637$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.3	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	4,264$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.26	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	3,810$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.59	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	7c	3,710$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.5	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,600$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c5…fbcfbacked Yes	1c	3,592$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.84	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	5c	3,273$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.83	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	3,170$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.69	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	3c	3,000$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ab…482ebacked Yes	0c	2,879$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	11c	2,802$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,391$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.44	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdc…506ebacked Yes	11c	2,231$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4864…1351backed Yes	10c	2,087$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.65	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Yes	1c	2,071$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	1c	2,049$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	2,046$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.21	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	7c	1,983$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.02	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,900$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,732$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.12	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	1,624$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.12	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf93…2fd7backed Yes	7c	1,509$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	1,490$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…f5a5backed Yes	1c	1,302$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	8c	1,200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	1,150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,098$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.23	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,062$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.37	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	5c	1,054$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.25	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	1c	1,022$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	6c	1,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	11c	999.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	6c	999.95$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes	1c	927.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	5c	888.66$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	887.24$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.49	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	747.2$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c4…a567backed Yes	4c	743.86$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	8c	695.67$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	7c	659.22$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.15	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	9c	651.86$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.67	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3910…7ba2backed Yes	7c	650$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	8c	642.39$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.39	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf52…513fbacked Yes	3c	622.13$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes	12c	600$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	11c	590$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.9	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes	6c	536.48$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	7c	512.5$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	578	11.4%66 W · 512 L	+19.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1b…9457backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x128d…fc4abacked Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b8…e7d5backed Yes	9c	499.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	3c	450$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	9c	447.75$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.78	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	7c	420$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31cf…4cd0backed Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f8d…7c12backed Yes	10c	399.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5282…1208backed Yes	11c	363.64$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	10c	352.26$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.23	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes	11c	350$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	303.02$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.9	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5aa…c200backed Yes	3c	300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	158	20.9%33 W · 125 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	11c	299.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	11c	288.44$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.34	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	280.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbe…4fdabacked Yes	11c	275.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x868b…3627backed Yes	11c	270.27$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.73	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+97.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f2b…90cfbacked Yes	7c	246.43$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd915…1a2ebacked Yes	8c	227$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.16	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	210.22$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.02	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	8c	210$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6642…12efbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41af…68eabacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7176…2f81backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	12c	199$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.88	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event