Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb25f4263382d87638c80ba3a8900d1da108e75daf175c98c68a986c31b801d4a

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,382,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $787,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,382,845 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 463 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	3c	47,861$1,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,403.86	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	7c	36,364$2,619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,619.41	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	28c	25,020$6,996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,996.49	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	18c	22,403$3,926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,926.41	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	39c	21,805$8,490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,490.18	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	15c	20,970$3,204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,204.48	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc723…bf1ebacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	18c	12,810$2,367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,366.74	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	21c	12,460$2,608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,607.56	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	12,390$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.92	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	2c	12,299$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.74	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	12c	12,048$1,454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,453.56	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	0c	11,540$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	15c	10,753$1,631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,630.75	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	10,650$961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960.5	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	10,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	23c	10,000$2,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,300	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	9,699$617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.99	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	25c	9,681$2,423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,422.91	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	8,952$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.84	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	5c	8,946$438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.74	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	6c	8,945$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.11	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	21c	8,650$1,774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,773.84	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	3c	8,501$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.06	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf887…92acbacked Yes	1c	7,241$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes	2c	7,000$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	9c	6,987$643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.53	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	0c	6,210$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	47c	6,119$2,860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,860	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes	13c	6,022$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.93	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	29c	5,374$1,570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,569.86	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	5,350$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.48	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	16c	5,348$830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$829.68	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	5,328$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.04	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	5,301$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.63	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	23c	5,197$1,196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,195.64	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6bd…a17ebacked Yes	5c	5,057$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.14	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	5c	5,038$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.09	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	24c	4,857$1,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,173.7	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	18c	4,633$831 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$831.3	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	17c	4,485$757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$756.58	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	25c	4,439$1,102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,102.12	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	13c	4,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	4,000$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.09	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	3,627$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.71	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	10c	3,601$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.58	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	16c	3,515$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.49	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	10c	3,500$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f17…d5acbacked Yes	2c	3,451$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.21	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	3,240$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.13	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1707…9b9fbacked Yes	18c	3,223$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.57	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…2082backed Yes	7c	3,055$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.33	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	40c	3,000$1,197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,197.43	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	21c	3,000$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	70c	2,989$2,085 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$904.7	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	13c	2,788$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.92	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	24c	2,743$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$664.64	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	23c	2,450$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.49	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	7c	2,300$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.2	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	7c	2,251$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a68…22dfbacked Yes	1c	2,241$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	77c	2,222$1,707 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$514.31	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	2,159$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.07	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	10c	2,100$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	13c	2,070$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.51	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	20c	2,000$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.39	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	17c	1,999$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.64	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	15c	1,947$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.7	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	12c	1,900$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.48	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	22c	1,891$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.53	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	33c	1,872$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	19c	1,851$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.69	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…f5a5backed Yes	16c	1,838$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.32	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	15c	1,829$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.25	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	11c	1,816$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.97	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	12c	1,814$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.18	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdffa…1ea3backed Yes	18c	1,795$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	21c	1,751$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2af…c94bbacked Yes	18c	1,722$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.4	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	20c	1,700$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	11c	1,650$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.65	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	29c	1,609$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.05	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b99…eda5backed Yes	41c	1,589$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.1	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	11c	1,564$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.04	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8887…c607backed Yes	48c	1,558$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes	6c	1,553$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked No	70c	1,516$1,062 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$454.95	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes	27c	1,513$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.75	118	34.7%41 W · 77 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	2c	1,500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	1,500$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df8…5332backed Yes	4c	1,486$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-51%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	11c	1,405$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.56	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x847e…9218backed No	73c	1,401$1,022 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$378.56	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	13c	1,349$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.52	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x118c…74c5backed Yes	44c	1,338$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.87	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	6c	1,336$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.4	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	15c	1,300$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.13	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	19c	1,279$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.91	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event