Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46dbc2a75c50bb06cc1f0cb606cb2676f1b25498b6b1ae2cbb2456a8eed2b023

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $349,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $202,938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,882 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe83a…7d59backed Yes	0c	29,308$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes	1c	11,564$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ff…a17cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-79.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,209$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.67	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	8,785$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.68	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	7,895$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.12	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	7,660$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.59	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0686…b980backed Yes	12c	6,202$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,506$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.88	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…2082backed Yes	16c	3,400$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,287$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.64	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	1c	2,869$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.76	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ca…7d8fbacked Yes	14c	2,700$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	15c	2,596$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	1c	2,186$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.74	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	11c	2,000$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.42	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	1,731$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.03	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c6…6d71backed Yes	2c	1,579$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	97	23.7%23 W · 74 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	12c	1,500$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	1,452$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.11	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	15c	1,429$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.59	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,336$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.79	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	3c	1,169$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.79	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,159$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.57	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	1,142$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.73	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,108$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x762d…9b6bbacked Yes	18c	1,084$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.11	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6bd…a17ebacked Yes	14c	1,050$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	9c	1,040$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.8	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	2c	1,036$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.22	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	2c	1,028$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfc…55bbbacked Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b50…1742backed Yes	12c	999.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	13c	999.66$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.54	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	16c	928.39$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x345c…cb97backed Yes	13c	917.21$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.24	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	12c	916.66$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	11c	900$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	4c	743.31$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1efe…ac77backed Yes	2c	731.74$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	99	10.1%10 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe91f…e493backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	3c	700$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.03	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	699.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.3	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	8c	688.25$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.2	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8683…3206backed Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x518e…4522backed Yes	5c	624.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+654.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf12…e4bcbacked Yes	15c	600$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	3c	600$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	13c	599.99$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes	14c	599.98$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x340f…7a99backed Yes	2c	581.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	11c	499.98$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9286…83e8backed Yes	14c	499.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	3c	496.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes	14c	486$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.04	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x660a…2ef5backed Yes	17c	441.45$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.07	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	18cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	11c	400.36$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	15c	400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	11c	385.18$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.19	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e0…fb00backed Yes	15c	366.67$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	6c	356.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes	10c	350.37$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.97	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a85…f0c7backed Yes	13c	346.15$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fa9…7633backed Yes	15c	333.24$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	11c	308.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.99	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	6c	308.27$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4720…5907backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	10c	299.98$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3382…8a35backed Yes	13c	276.92$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	250$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.05	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	13c	245.75$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.03	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7217…a87cbacked Yes	17c	239.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes	14c	220$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c3…fe9abacked Yes	14c	214.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f6e…db0bbacked Yes	12c	210$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb997…f852backed Yes	15c	201.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.22	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	74	10.8%8 W · 66 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17c…20ffbacked Yes	14c	200$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-90%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1be…40aebacked Yes	17c	199.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53aa…7c78backed Yes	16c	191.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	8c	190.91$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	15c	183.3$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5340…76f9backed Yes	17c	180$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6302…81d3backed Yes	16c	174$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4bc…91c2backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x868b…3627backed Yes	15c	155.27$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.29	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+97.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbc…6d64backed Yes	10c	151.84$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51da…1076backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf37d…ca21backed Yes	12c	122.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.67	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x560b…5bf9backed Yes	14c	120$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46fc…8f78backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc8…02b2backed Yes	14c	114.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fb1…17d7backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d6…7416backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-42%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event