Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ebf38e4a572f1c89cc18cfe58832e76d36b6e0c6eb664d7e6c5b01757483231

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $922,091
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $377,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $922,091 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	66,161$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.91	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	0c	63,825$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.83	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaddf…c6bfbacked Yes	0c	30,708$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.93	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	30,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	19,662$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.66	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	16,343$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.89	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	16,300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.3	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	2c	14,000$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.97	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	13,785$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	13,529$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	13,355$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.89	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	11,882$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.67	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	0c	11,500$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	11,380$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.14	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	11,278$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.44	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	11,047$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…fa2ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes	2c	8,783$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.98	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	8,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	6,263$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4064…82c6backed Yes	1c	5,925$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	5,800$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	5,632$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.4	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	5,499$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.87	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	5,266$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92c0…3625backed Yes	0c	5,205$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	4,948$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.15	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	1c	4,749$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.13	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba17…b477backed Yes	3c	4,452$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	2c	4,290$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.09	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	0c	4,200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	4,127$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	2c	4,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes	0c	4,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	3c	3,901$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	2c	3,810$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.37	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	3,794$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.69	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x847e…9218backed Yes	4c	3,697$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.9	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	3,595$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.42	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f91…0689backed Yes	1c	3,538$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.32	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	3,414$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019a…7df0backed Yes	0c	3,412$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	3,034$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	2c	3,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	4c	2,945$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…b8ecbacked Yes	2c	2,798$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	4cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	3c	2,533$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.61	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	1c	2,406$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	6c	2,200$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	2,088$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.83	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,067$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.69	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	2,044$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.05	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.17	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	2c	1,886$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.4	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65d3…471cbacked Yes	2c	1,715$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	2c	1,597$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes	1c	1,583$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	2c	1,577$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.77	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	2c	1,498$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	4c	1,494$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76e3…f160backed Yes	1c	1,431$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+144.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	1c	1,400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcda…d764backed Yes	2c	1,339$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+58.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	2c	1,265$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.21	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	1c	1,228$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde71…070ebacked Yes	5c	1,210$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.34	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed3…0527backed Yes	2c	1,125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	1c	1,053$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes	2c	922.75$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	916.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x101f…e9a4backed Yes	2c	860.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+281.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b29…8326backed Yes	2c	859.4$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc86f…f86abacked Yes	3c	826.01$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2da…8633backed Yes	5c	818.62$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.88	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	2c	805.59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.36	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x854c…01e2backed Yes	2c	800$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes	3c	755.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	201	29.4%59 W · 142 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	748.35$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes	2c	699.94$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes	2c	697.79$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+114.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeec…93f9backed Yes	3c	672$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.69	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	3c	641.39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.74	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes	2c	639.87$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72e5…4690backed Yes	4c	488.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be8…876bbacked Yes	3c	477.62$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed Yes	4c	444.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4638…489fbacked Yes	2c	417.57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Yes	5c	391.82$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	108	16.7%18 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e55…a76abacked Yes	4c	270.49$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	6c	220.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.46	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	190.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event