TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x101f…e9a4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Dota2, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 52 out of 100; worst Weather at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+281.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+554%+$221.62
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$168
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$96.6
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$147.53
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+623.7%+$1,746.39
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+5,386.1%+$2,854.65
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$71.25
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+55.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Pelicans vs. Wizardsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+58.7%+$38.17
Mavericks vs. Warriorsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+362.6%+$72.51
All 4 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Aurora vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+35.4%+$10.61
Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Team Sangre (BO3)backed Perú Rejects · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+33.3%+$13.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+58.7%+$34.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flyers vs. Oilersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+44.5%+$22.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+40.8%+$62.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Everton FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+27.4%+$27.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Monaco FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.