Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a925fae9fe0f15778a24f94a7cb791fe732701ea97e3a42a34558dffcc76484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,103$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 878.81$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.69 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 13c | 750$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 653.3$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Yes | 45c | 602.08$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 426.73$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 53c | 409.55$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.55 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…86d9backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 58c | 342.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.51 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Yes | 39c | 258.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…1943backed No | 72c | 213.61$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 201.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…ea3dbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…e9a4backed Yes | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 137.54$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe0…e3e0backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 28c | 72.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 41c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…d269backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb0…f860backed No | 73c | 64.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…763bbacked Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 64c | 55.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…ab3ebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…57e8backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Yes | 55c | 25.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 66c | 24.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad68…b97cbacked No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 75cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-01-16?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-01-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.