TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-01-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$325,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$329,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Yes39c201,796$78,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123,210.412759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No61c138,152$84,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,272.454042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No61c69,953$42,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,671.339455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes39c40,000$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,4005052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No61c29,180$17,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,897.131,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed No61c11,116$6,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,780.814351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes38c10,841$4,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,703.5633244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes38c7,464$2,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,627.948037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Yes39c7,000$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,269.978752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes40c6,454$2,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,847.083,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked No61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0501353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked No61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0501050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No46c4,300$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+73.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No50c3,523$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.541,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x538a…0823backed Yes38c3,518$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,168.89540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes39c3,099$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.9244749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked No0c3,013$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.354119.5%8 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdff3…70e4backed No62c2,660$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed No63c2,387$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked No61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2201154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb28d…83e4backed No61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.97714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-78%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No63c1,380$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked No61c1,320$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ad…fabcbacked No67c1,193$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.324856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Yes39c1,137$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6959048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No62c1,042$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.9710945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed No62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6202454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked No61c999.98$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.991250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Yes37c999.98$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.988251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No62c965.12$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.4751136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked No62c806.45$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe724…1938backed Yes39c781.74$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.861861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed No68c700$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47619458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes39c665$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.657639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes35c574.74$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.586439.1%25 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Yes39c572.74$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.376428.1%18 W · 46 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed No62c522$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.643053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed No67c500$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.361457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No62c500$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30956547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes32c498.28$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.532,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No61c455.9$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.156951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d0…6078backed No61c450$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No62c433.79$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.9538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ece…ef2fbacked No62c418.41$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No63c396.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+241.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked No62c350$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2171471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes35c339.22$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.2220436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0178…3f7abacked No67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes32c282.19$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.8911748.7%57 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Yes39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.411553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9058…a2c2backed Yes39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.412040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe56e…dc0cbacked No62c253.59$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda14…8efdbacked No62c253.53$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes43c235.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.018946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x981c…7f14backed Yes32c228.5$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes50c213.82$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.216542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12216850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed No62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1246053.3%32 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Yes39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1222920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed No62c193$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.662748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No61c179.79$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0255058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes28c178.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.572680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+39.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd902…d076backed No61c176.5$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.833046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x765d…f447backed No66c173.9$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes62c157.43$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.41850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.54440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa134…3ba2backed Yes34c144.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed No62c137.1$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No61c134.08$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.792222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-45%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x15ac…f3babacked Yes40c124.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.72552%13 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1d…95debacked No62c120.97$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5565…7693backed No61c119.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed No62c101.9$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.135356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6115829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7eb…28a9backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98be…51d9backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110454.8%57 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a0…8423backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked No61c99.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4913852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No64c99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.364544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed No63c90$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes39c89.74$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7418840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Yes28c89.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2912538.4%48 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes39c84.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6234547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Yes37c81.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.084926.5%13 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked No62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4b…2970backed No62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed No62c80.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92065%13 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x133a…d269backed No62c80.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Yes40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.48939.3%35 W · 54 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked No62c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.61844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ea…52dbbacked No62c78.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.72462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf33…ab3ebacked Yes51c77.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.64959.2%29 W · 20 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes39c76.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.921233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed No62c67.62$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.921450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc301…c243backed No62c66$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x604d…4608backed Yes39c64.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.12737%10 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc61a…c00cbacked Yes39c63.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.741580%12 W · 3 L+4.8wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+63.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Yes39c61.54$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked No61c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.67439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.