Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-01-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x850e64da1a7c467dc92d491ae26baabd2ae667872a94790ad231194df2198514
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 65c | 10,000$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 35c | 9,843$3,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,445.14 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 39c | 2,074$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.04 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 63c | 1,947$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.62 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 34c | 1,718$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.12 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 991.69$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.84 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…bd30backed Yes | 37c | 598.34$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 66c | 518.32$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.23 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 30c | 501.59$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 432.39$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 36c | 392.78$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 65c | 332.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…7f14backed Yes | 35c | 317.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 66c | 313.44$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 35c | 220$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 33c | 155.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 64c | 153.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 39c | 128.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 119.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed No | 66c | 112$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98be…51d9backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 67c | 99.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 30c | 94.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 34c | 91.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 65c | 78.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Yes | 33c | 76.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 35c | 75.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 27c | 70.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 15c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…0156backed Yes | 35c | 66.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…5302backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…dd60backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Yes | 36c | 44.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked No | 66c | 39.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 32c | 34.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…c0cfbacked Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked No | 67c | 22.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed No | 66c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 66c | 18.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 66c | 17.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-01-16?this page
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-01-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.