TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-01-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$183,935
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$194,276

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,935 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Yes40c120,387$48,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,235.092759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No60c81,659$48,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,995.424042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed No60c12,221$7,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,332.64351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No60c10,585$6,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,343.781,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked No60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0001050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5efe…569dbacked Yes40c9,733$3,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,839.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked No60c7,320$4,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,391.998037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes39c6,857$2,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,182.5333244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes43c6,447$2,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,664.924963.3%31 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No60c4,932$2,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,958.998752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked No57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2801353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No53c2,954$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.13,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No59c2,900$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+73.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No60c2,281$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.3910945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes41c2,220$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.1678248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked No60c1,633$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.911154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No60c1,475$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.811,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Yes42c1,418$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.616726.9%18 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked No59c1,250$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.491250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Yes41c1,012$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.817335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85ce…d5f9backed Yes40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+42.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Yes40c921.67$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No56c882.56$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.232740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No56c857.55$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.233154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked No60c833.33$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No62c810$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked No60c800$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No57c701$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.574526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9346…ea03backed No60c590.55$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3565246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8887…c607backed Yes47c564.45$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.164100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes40c511.96$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.185052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1fc…bcdfbacked No61c510.11$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.17366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ece…ef2fbacked No59c508.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…f2f2backed No59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2952055%11 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked No60c492$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.25655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed No58c481.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.687759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2d0…6078backed No60c480$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd902…d076backed No60c422.04$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.833046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed No61c409.84$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes40c400$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.9456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed No61c328$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.083053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes46c303.88$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8820436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17716850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1531546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4daa…6920backed Yes40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda14…8efdbacked No60c273.76$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes40c271.63$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.6334547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x195b…c181backed Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes41c244.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3810128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes47c212.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.872680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+39.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes43c212.4$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.072334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ba…5435backed No60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed No58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1166053.3%32 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed Yes42c199.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1166136.1%22 W · 39 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x255c…7efebacked Yes71c173.27$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed No60c165.83$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x670b…2c75backed No44c150.96$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+72.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked No58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No60c138.16$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.955058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Yes47c127.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.664926.5%13 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No60c124.36$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0251136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed No60c111.3$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.782748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5715829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7d…c3a6backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd876…04d2backed No61c95.68$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No53c95.57$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.652,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Yes41c94.42$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.714835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed No61c90$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed No55c88.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.595356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No42c87.67$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8340744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes46c86.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.981233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked No58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x101f…e9a4backed Yes47c85.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes43c83$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3816542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked No61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed No60c81.78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.152065%13 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc981…a53dbacked No61c79.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.991040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked No60c71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.61573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked No59c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.37439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7eb…28a9backed No60c70$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7802…d5b4backed Yes41c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.31675%12 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+60%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x32d6…844bbacked No60c66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.61656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed No62c64.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Yes40c61.27$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.764445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1d…95debacked No60c58.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480e…a98bbacked No61c57.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba83…79a9backed No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014539.3%57 W · 88 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No55c48.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6476234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed No61c47.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.829551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Yes40c47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.28939.3%35 W · 54 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Yes47c42.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7727142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeabd…8115backed No59c42.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No59c42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.648555.3%47 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed No58c41.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed No46c40.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9714934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x230b…1e27backed No60c39.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.67560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.