Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on December 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc69cbf9b4420e5e26035a697da8771e6ac11a32bc85e21bee214c2509d3bf764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 1c | 2,059$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,557$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,112$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 411.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 400.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 48c | 391.31$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.67 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…f08dbacked No | 52c | 308.2$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed Yes | 41c | 284.11$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.29 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 46c | 195$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 48c | 193.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 52c | 147.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…6887backed Yes | 16c | 135$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…e023backed Yes | 66c | 118$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…8fa5backed Yes | 63c | 116.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc946…1825backed Yes | 46c | 103.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…d520backed Yes | 66c | 102$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 36c | 100.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 14c | 98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 30c | 94.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 50c | 90.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 51c | 88.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 46c | 88.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 42c | 68.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 62.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 36c | 61.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 42c | 55.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 56c | 49.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…3a18backed Yes | 61c | 48.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 45.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d39…c505backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d7…0b5ebacked Yes | 67c | 29.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 37c | 28.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…e9a4backed Yes | 60c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on December 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on December 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on December 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on December 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on December 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on December 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.