Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on January 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7810f2a75674d5abc6661d1161aa1e50f521c464cbc0d3a2fa6cb5d8b56d879
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 63c | 7,287$4,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.98 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 31c | 4,151$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,863.37 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 28c | 4,053$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,937.31 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 31c | 2,723$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.72 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 63c | 2,631$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.83 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…c019backed No | 74c | 2,613$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e05…5a3dbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +450%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,664$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.25 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 66c | 1,637$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.67 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,322$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.83 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 60c | 1,189$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.9 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 21c | 1,100$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.5 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 30c | 1,046$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.52 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 27c | 1,035$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.52 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…8533backed Yes | 69c | 999.99$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 70c | 910.01$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.31 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 28c | 863$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.28 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked No | 67c | 659.23$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.46 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 58c | 576.07$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.64 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 66c | 491.31$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.99 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 78c | 402.35$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…b979backed Yes | 68c | 399.66$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.47 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 23c | 392.36$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.62 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…379fbacked No | 37c | 354.84$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 64c | 350.1$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.07 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…e75fbacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…70f4backed No | 74c | 255.62$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 25c | 248.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.89 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 51c | 239.02$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 31c | 228.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 71c | 224.54$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked No | 46c | 216.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 55c | 206.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 37c | 202.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…7e5abacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 42c | 168.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…9d4dbacked Yes | 65c | 155.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 38c | 149.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 38c | 146.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 26c | 146.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccbe…b19bbacked Yes | 77c | 129.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63b…6ee0backed No | 40c | 122.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 22c | 113.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…4e54backed Yes | 69c | 111.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 54c | 107.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…c822backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…a752backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…46d8backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 57c | 87.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…c077backed Yes | 65c | 81.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…4b64backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 77.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 58c | 76.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 76.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 58c | 73.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…0839backed Yes | 70c | 68.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…547fbacked No | 50c | 64.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce14…cdf2backed No | 67c | 61.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…2770backed Yes | 69c | 61.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…e9a4backed Yes | 51c | 53.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed No | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa167…729ebacked Yes | 77c | 52.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…4c7dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…23d4backed Yes | 67c | 49.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 65c | 49.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe945…94bcbacked No | 40c | 47.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…8f7cbacked Yes | 74c | 47.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed No | 68c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…eb65backed Yes | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 77c | 44.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…e79cbacked Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf963…55e4backed No | 74c | 40.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd3…ff47backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…c3d0backed Yes | 55c | 39.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 41c | 38.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 66c | 37.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…0128backed Yes | 50c | 36.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…bb08backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 56c | 34.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…96e6backed No | 43c | 34.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 72c | 34.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 34c | 32.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes | 75c | 31.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…f0b6backed Yes | 35c | 31.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 59c | 30.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…30acbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on January 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.