TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on January 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,059 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes63c7,287$4,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,722.9810751.4%55 W · 52 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa629…fe39backed Yes31c4,151$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,863.375446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed Yes28c4,053$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,937.315853.4%31 W · 27 L+9.8wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+188.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes31c2,723$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.7228718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No63c2,631$1,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.8331649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdde…c019backed No74c2,613$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e05…5a3dbacked No2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402015%3 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick2cpaid+450%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes30c1,664$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.2583332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No66c1,637$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.675451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes40c1,322$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.8347834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No60c1,189$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.97244.4%32 W · 40 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd49e…5110backed Yes21c1,100$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.58924.7%22 W · 67 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes30c1,046$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.5229922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…f204backed Yes27c1,035$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.5211449.1%56 W · 58 L+17.9wins+0.16per pick33cpaid+104.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5099…7d87backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201225%3 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick2cpaid+1,150%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6167…8533backed Yes69c999.99$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3102343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed No70c910.01$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.3166144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes28c863$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.281,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6660…172bbacked No67c659.23$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.462454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No58c576.07$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.6427246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No66c491.31$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.9926339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes78c402.35$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.394,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes23c400$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30812125.6%31 W · 90 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7342…b979backed Yes68c399.66$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.471330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes23c392.36$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.6296620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbda…379fbacked No37c354.84$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.541145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed Yes64c350.1$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.075056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9437…e75fbacked No70c300$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21040%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8740…70f4backed No74c255.62$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.112035%7 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes25c248.14$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.8925362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes51c239.02$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5859021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No31c228.34$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3284759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes71c224.54$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5421847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x299c…d85ebacked No46c216.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.551353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes55c206.11$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6220631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No37c202.69$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.752,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf62d…7e5abacked No80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes7c200$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1871,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes42c168.64$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3954037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…9d4dbacked Yes65c155.32$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No56c150$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.590040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes11c150$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes38c149.78$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes38c146.97$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.973243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked No26c146.53$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5111323%26 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccbe…b19bbacked Yes77c129.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.82540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb63b…6ee0backed No40c122.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1760%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes22c113.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x3aca…4e54backed Yes69c111.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No54c107.46$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8212251.6%63 W · 59 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ef…c822backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid+30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4657…a752backed No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90c4…46d8backed No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413050%15 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc00a…2424backed Yes57c87.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.935959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c48…c077backed Yes65c81.18$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.381060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes36c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.91233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee5…4b64backed Yes32c80$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.041566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+65.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No27c77.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.022,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No58c76.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3827560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes44c76.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes58c73.61$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.921735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95bd…0839backed Yes70c68.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.771369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c6b…547fbacked No50c64.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce14…cdf2backed No67c61.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5889…2770backed Yes69c61.11$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.151060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed No36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62040%8 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x101f…e9a4backed Yes51c53.46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cd…e8d7backed No35c53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.684936.7%18 W · 31 L-6.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-35.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa167…729ebacked Yes77c52.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebc…4c7dbacked No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3512624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67d3…23d4backed Yes67c49.97$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No65c49.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3160235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe945…94bcbacked No40c47.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d35…8f7cbacked Yes74c47.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5250…2772backed No68c46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.282259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe585…eb65backed Yes67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.651963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+43.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes38c44.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.741050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes77c44.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2715558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce63…e79cbacked Yes73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf963…55e4backed No74c40.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd3…ff47backed Yes43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+71.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe43b…c3d0backed Yes55c39.49$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-35.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed Yes41c38.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.648551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec1c…cd68backed Yes66c37.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.964553.3%24 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x998a…745bbacked Yes53c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3914252.1%74 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31b…0128backed Yes50c36.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4374…bb08backed No67c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.451450%7 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No56c34.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.461,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b2…96e6backed No43c34.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed Yes72c34.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.894355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes59c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.851258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No34c32.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9963656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes75c31.94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.942236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-32.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a6c…f0b6backed Yes35c31.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.47475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+46.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes59c30.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3632352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06fa…30acbacked Yes59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.