Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd68a9c0ba618df6dee366f33e45e8396d5e5bb9e2f7afa862cfef8e90b60c42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 7c | 6,676$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.92 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e05…5a3dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +450%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,313$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.79 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 40c | 474.75$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.67 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 27c | 401.72$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 26c | 387.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…8c71backed Yes | 42c | 384.32$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 41c | 362.67$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.39 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 39c | 342.71$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.43 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 33c | 295.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 26c | 197.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 63c | 162.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…379fbacked Yes | 66c | 146.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 137.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 23c | 128.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 71c | 127.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9102…b827backed Yes | 41c | 121.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…566ebacked No | 79c | 107.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa167…729ebacked Yes | 62c | 105.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded9…9379backed Yes | 75c | 105.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 101.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…c822backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 42c | 92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 41c | 89.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 28c | 81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 58c | 80.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 80.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…c077backed Yes | 35c | 77.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 48c | 75.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…b979backed Yes | 36c | 69.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 64.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d4…c90ebacked Yes | 25c | 57.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…46d8backed Yes | 37c | 53.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…b4b7backed Yes | 33c | 52.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 60c | 51.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…cf0cbacked Yes | 55c | 50.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…e75fbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f9…8b7bbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…4d4cbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…2770backed Yes | 34c | 42.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 41.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 41.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…0d67backed Yes | 59c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…f7e7backed Yes | 40c | 37.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 76c | 37.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…30acbacked Yes | 44c | 36.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bf…451cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…7fb9backed Yes | 66c | 30.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Yes | 35c | 28.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…04e4backed No | 72c | 27.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…70f4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce14…cdf2backed Yes | 53c | 24.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 57c | 24.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 58c | 24.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 47c | 23.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eed…10eebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on January 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.