Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9daa9c0abb5506523bac5dee937313cef0f3e4c86995704acd5af07c7bb277c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,006,440
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,322,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,006,440 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 907 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x17e7…e4e5backed Yes	0c	406,711$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.71	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	146,289$2,696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,696.37	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	59,127$5,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,039.24	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	11c	48,886$5,198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,198.41	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	6c	36,014$2,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,031.97	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	40c	32,391$13,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,111.69	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	30,482$1,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,192.92	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	12c	26,928$3,169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,168.52	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	26,281$1,930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,929.8	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	16c	21,491$3,445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,445.25	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9bd…d843backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	3c	18,338$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.8	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	59c	17,070$10,104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,966.12	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	52c	16,688$8,609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,079.42	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	4c	16,500$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.83	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	8c	15,546$1,274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,274.46	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	31c	15,000$4,595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,595.45	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Yes	18c	14,139$2,552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,552.12	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	44c	14,114$6,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,253.85	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	13,986$982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$981.54	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	29c	12,971$3,724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,724.27	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No	75c	12,713$9,581 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,131.78	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	28c	12,711$3,559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,559.11	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	1c	12,320$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.6	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x538e…8118backed Yes	2c	12,072$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	12c	12,029$1,455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,455.15	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes	2c	12,000$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	11,990$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$815.2	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed No	75c	11,487$8,658 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,829.85	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed No	69c	11,316$7,817 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,499.06	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	11c	11,214$1,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,230.34	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	3c	11,026$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.34	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	18c	10,646$1,948 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,947.99	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	12c	10,431$1,205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,204.75	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	5c	9,655$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.95	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	43c	9,648$4,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,147.44	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	77c	9,424$7,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,216.48	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes	16c	9,180$1,459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,459.14	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+126.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	3c	8,885$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.77	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	31c	8,877$2,796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,796.02	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	32c	8,790$2,786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,785.53	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	13c	8,603$1,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,161.18	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	11c	8,439$931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$931.49	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x742d…b40fbacked Yes	5c	8,367$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	43c	8,330$3,582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,582.45	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	8,247$1,238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,238.01	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	23c	8,176$1,916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,916.08	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes	7c	7,981$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.85	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3841…cd5cbacked Yes	7c	7,815$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.71	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	6cpaid	+314.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x733c…851fbacked Yes	18c	7,650$1,390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,390	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	42c	7,606$3,211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,210.69	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	13c	7,463$962 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$962.49	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	35c	7,322$2,560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,560	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	7,280$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.9	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	21c	7,227$1,511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,510.57	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f23…2124backed Yes	4c	7,004$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.36	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.47per pick	3cpaid	+2,393.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	12c	6,734$782 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$781.72	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	5c	6,616$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.01	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No	60c	6,437$3,837 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,600.1	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcce5…afb0backed Yes	3c	6,361$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.39	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.16per pick	23cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	6,340$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.23	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x774f…8779backed Yes	0c	6,333$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.67	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	16c	6,286$979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$978.54	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	53c	6,213$3,278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,278.38	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	8c	6,156$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.04	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	35c	6,064$2,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,149.7	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	6c	6,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No	43c	5,981$2,561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,420.33	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	5,805$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.98	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b3…4fcdbacked Yes	28c	5,698$1,619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,618.81	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	58c	5,670$3,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,299.34	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	6c	5,518$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.72	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	4c	5,500$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.85	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	16c	5,317$849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$849.13	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	20c	5,185$1,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,032	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	2c	5,000$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	27c	4,832$1,328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,327.55	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	6c	4,816$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.2	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	12c	4,765$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.79	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	17c	4,742$803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$803.1	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	4,706$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	19c	4,513$846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$846.48	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	4,492$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.29	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa00…eba1backed Yes	35c	4,468$1,555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,555.24	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	17c	4,414$748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.05	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	22c	4,252$943 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$943	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Yes	16c	4,172$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.78	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+43%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	4c	4,100$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.1	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	15c	4,000$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	3,988$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.61	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	12c	3,955$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.69	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	13c	3,950$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.13	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes	15c	3,912$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.42	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	30c	3,895$1,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,177.25	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	3,816$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.91	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab61…1137backed Yes	38c	3,809$1,458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,458.3	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes	10c	3,800$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	9c	3,782$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event