Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe23e035a2e993a9db98858955cb365025485cc932dada6784efd821595d32e2a

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $228,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $154,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,284 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe2fe…f523backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0686…b980backed Yes	7c	10,549$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,109$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.09	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	5,000$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.99	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	4,306$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	4,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	9c	2,000$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.99	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	7c	1,937$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.21	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	1,893$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.02	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	1,720$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	5c	1,600$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	1,582$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.05	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	1c	1,252$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,226$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.24	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,220$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.61	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,133$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.42	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	2c	1,033$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	1,001$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.99	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	999.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7176…2f81backed Yes	9c	800$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c7…6ff2backed Yes	11c	708.91$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	685.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.64	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	625.59$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.39	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	9c	600$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	599.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	7c	594.56$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	7c	571.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	531.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.51	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	5c	499.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes	12c	486$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.32	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	12c	420.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc17c…20ffbacked Yes	9c	399.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-90%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ca…2364backed Yes	5c	377.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	9c	350$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7217…a87cbacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5282…1208backed Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd814…32ccbacked Yes	7c	299.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-72.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf887…92acbacked Yes	6c	267.9$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	11c	260.25$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	9c	250$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x660a…2ef5backed Yes	11c	223.58$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.64	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	18cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	7c	220.69$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.26	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	6c	199.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	74	10.8%8 W · 66 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	9c	148.11$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	10c	120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb1…17d7backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0015…d5b0backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc765…a868backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event