Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ed971cf8bb47105a348fd2e8b567aae3e2386d27e6a7a8188190eae0b70f7d

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $739,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $453,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $739,230 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa8ea…d3f7backed Yes	0c	58,972$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	17,900$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.69	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a1…13a3backed Yes	0c	16,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	15,993$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.74	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	0c	15,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	9,500$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.62	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	9,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe440…dbbcbacked Yes	0c	7,200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a7…73b2backed Yes	0c	7,065$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	6,900$681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$681.1	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ca…0437backed Yes	0c	6,189$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	5,673$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.72	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94fe…eff9backed Yes	1c	5,670$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.86	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	4,610$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.13	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	12c	4,203$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.14	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,129$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.64	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	1c	4,015$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.41	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x881f…dfe9backed Yes	0c	3,617$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	2c	3,377$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.68	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	1c	3,260$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.97	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	3,233$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.76	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	3,060$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	14c	2,970$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.91	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,614$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.86	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes	1c	2,455$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	4cpaid	+464.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	13c	2,193$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.9	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	13c	2,096$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.81	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	11c	2,000$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.35	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	2,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.29	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	5c	1,987$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	1,900$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.42	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	1,884$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.28	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,827$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.08	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes	2c	1,642$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.55	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	1,571$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.2	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	12c	1,500$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.27	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad79…265dbacked Yes	1c	1,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	12c	1,500$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	10c	1,452$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.19	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	1,427$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.01	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	4c	1,385$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1b…9457backed Yes	14c	1,382$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,335$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.14	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes	2c	1,163$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	3c	1,103$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.53	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	3c	1,012$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.28	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfc…55bbbacked Yes	3c	1,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	1c	999.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	13c	999.93$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.99	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	1c	982.92$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.81	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa86d…b2dabacked Yes	3c	960.08$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.94	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	4cpaid	+425.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	13c	944.67$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.33	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	942.58$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.84	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	2c	932.96$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	899.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	6c	894$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.64	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba63…e860backed Yes	5c	866.51$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.54	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4229…c131backed Yes	2c	848.52$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	7c	846.02$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.67	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	12c	838.9$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.49	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	13c	799.98$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	15c	733.33$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e0…fb00backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	9c	703.3$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.01	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	700$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…39adbacked Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+124.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	13c	600.63$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes	12c	600$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	11c	600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f1…2b51backed Yes	5c	570.01$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.01	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	4c	549.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	547.97$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.19	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes	13c	538.46$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x643a…5be6backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4720…5907backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes	14c	485.96$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.03	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes	4c	481.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	2c	481.1$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	12c	480.2$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.23	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	8c	431.11$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6051…1ff6backed Yes	10c	407.64$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.76	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03bf…a94bbacked Yes	10c	401.68$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.17	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	11c	400$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.3	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17c…20ffbacked Yes	12c	393.66$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.43	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-90%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	4c	392.52$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	4c	368$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	8c	365.8$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.96	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	4c	365.06$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa72a…026dbacked Yes	12c	361.74$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf32c…de99backed Yes	14c	357.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de0…af02backed Yes	3c	355.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.01	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	9c	318$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.81	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	14c	310$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.4	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event