Olympics · resolved market
Will Norway win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20243813f6329b08d8f97614791e15f211934585162bd31f9a7215ce7d34c041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3994…f3d4backed Yes | 77c | 4,763$3,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 77c | 4,759$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.18 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 5c | 4,444$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 75c | 3,829$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 15c | 3,800$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.99 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 19c | 2,623$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 18c | 1,293$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.32 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 4c | 1,119$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…69ddbacked Yes | 66c | 987.55$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 952.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 798$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.14 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 29c | 769.16$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.7 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…77ddbacked No | 18c | 653.21$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 651.08$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.12 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1835…6b92backed Yes | 75c | 518.12$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 499.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 440.03$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 13c | 422.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 3c | 421.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 361.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 70c | 345.97$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 30c | 330.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1447…a9e6backed No | 4c | 285.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…71b7backed Yes | 68c | 251$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…e0f9backed Yes | 67c | 200.35$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 40c | 191$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 17c | 187.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 29c | 178.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…619bbacked Yes | 75c | 160$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9288…b33dbacked Yes | 67c | 150.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed Yes | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 12c | 114.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Yes | 60c | 114.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…59afbacked No | 42c | 88.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 24c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…361abacked Yes | 67c | 75.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe002…3135backed Yes | 77c | 59.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 56.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 65c | 54.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 25c | 54.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 78c | 46.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5335backed Yes | 69c | 37.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5044…f67fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x144c…db79backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…2c0bbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…446dbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 50c | 20.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8619…a473backed Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked Yes | 76c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…de13backed Yes | 78c | 16.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Germany win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.