Olympics · resolved market
Will the United States win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ffdaf5837f87b6d26a60f6ff73584576b4a0f7dfffcfdb91b3fbd3211876d41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 15c | 7,489$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.06 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…befbbacked Yes | 5c | 3,622$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 25c | 2,853$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.7 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 30c | 2,326$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 24c | 1,004$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 74c | 711.46$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…6f43backed Yes | 31c | 591.28$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 309.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…3f69backed Yes | 4c | 260.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 19c | 228.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 70c | 200.94$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 20c | 180.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 174.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 170.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 152.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 13c | 137$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 33c | 116.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…d235backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdace…abe8backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 56.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 54.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 69c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 67c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3c…3ebcbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the United States win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Germany win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.