Movies · resolved market
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa163fb0119a74900393d9bddcc14ea97b9c58f75101ed642bb6d9e7da3a58f70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 15c | 1,370$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.75 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 19c | 718.61$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.56 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 58c | 683$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 42c | 672$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 27c | 664$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.3 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 76c | 654.9$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 53c | 609$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.23 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 47c | 595$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 62c | 563.42$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.14 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 19c | 558$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed No | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 51c | 387.63$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.76 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 353.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 54c | 327$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.62 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed No | 16c | 283.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 11c | 254.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed No | 21c | 249.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 46c | 231$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 6c | 200.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…59afbacked No | 25c | 159.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 125.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 17c | 107$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6985…afdfbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 91.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed No | 19c | 63.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…02c5backed No | 19c | 62.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2147…a818backed Yes | 46c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 60.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 18c | 57.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 79c | 56.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 20c | 50.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 68c | 50.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 37c | 48.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 45c | 42.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 50c | 40.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 44c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 80c | 32.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 40c | 30.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes | 57c | 29.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…1055backed Yes | 46c | 22.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…649abacked Yes | 59c | 22.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…575bbacked Yes | 73c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 54c | 18.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…2bfbbacked Yes | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…0caabacked Yes | 70c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…6c6cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.