Movies · resolved market
Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57adcdf95dd62698d8bd5ae9f1584d53f3ffb548c75337a4d88b4871067616a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb04…ec13backed Yes | 16c | 2,092$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.68 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 18c | 1,053$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 13c | 587.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 16c | 566$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 15c | 488.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 7c | 488.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…8330backed Yes | 18c | 456$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes | 24c | 277$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No | 76c | 277$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 77c | 258.77$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 138$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 106$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 15c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 17c | 101.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…f144backed No | 52c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed No | 74c | 75.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 33c | 71.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 77c | 35.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 75c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…cb03backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.