Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd39d9766451fe3b17f1ef5fd8779febd437e4744b310f0a3a6d1feb9c812acfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 2,937$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 2,263$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 57c | 1,741$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.26 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 27c | 1,140$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…0339backed Yes | 53c | 914.78$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.47 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 62c | 553.8$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.35 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…4323backed Yes | 68c | 442.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 12c | 400$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 397.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 27c | 385.19$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed No | 75c | 349.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 34c | 334.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.86 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 33c | 331.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.27 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 20c | 326.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 25c | 323.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…0962backed Yes | 62c | 321.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…9b17backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…9baabacked No | 76c | 249.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 13c | 230.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 52c | 222.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 41c | 220.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…e3e1backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 51c | 195.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…959fbacked Yes | 43c | 191.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 22c | 188.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…441dbacked Yes | 47c | 187.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…9575backed Yes | 72c | 177.08$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 177.06$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…e004backed Yes | 77c | 169.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 59c | 167.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de1…6707backed Yes | 68c | 158.68$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 54c | 155.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 61c | 155.49$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 24c | 151.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…ad27backed Yes | 35c | 150.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 17c | 149.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 36c | 149.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 15c | 145.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 56c | 133.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 37c | 130.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 61c | 116.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 43c | 101.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 101.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…3f04backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a1…58c1backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…c960backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 30c | 99.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 54c | 92.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 92.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…ea5cbacked No | 46c | 89.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…5f22backed No | 75c | 87.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…f779backed Yes | 56c | 86.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 67c | 85.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…0464backed Yes | 52c | 82.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 32c | 82.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 45c | 82.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 61c | 81.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5963backed Yes | 59c | 80.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 79.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 24c | 76.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 49c | 75.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…56ccbacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…b7bcbacked Yes | 30c | 67.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 63.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…b968backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…6115backed Yes | 64c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes | 41c | 59.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c9…8d23backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8eb…ba62backed Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed No | 34c | 44.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 47c | 43.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 46c | 42.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 49c | 39.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed No | 51c | 39.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c5…2831backed Yes | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…bf84backed Yes | 57c | 34.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Yes | 63c | 31.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…c017backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.