Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x426af12f99b7fdbb0ee379a51c706b2173fc9c05ec079b5a6ccab59205072649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 53c | 3,783$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 1,717$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 5c | 1,072$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 37c | 1,029$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.62 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 45c | 562.85$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.25 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 70c | 558.29$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.29 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 64c | 513.42$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.21 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 77c | 499.27$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 51c | 444.52$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.38 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 72c | 442.84$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 79c | 430.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 67c | 402.78$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 42c | 399.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.03 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…441dbacked Yes | 55c | 354.67$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 39c | 344.23$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…f0febacked Yes | 44c | 300.61$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 52c | 290.65$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.41 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 283.59$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 275.42$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.16 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 46c | 258.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 55c | 240.3$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.13 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 63c | 201$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed No | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 35c | 180.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 74c | 167.4$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de1…6707backed Yes | 44c | 167.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…23cebacked Yes | 74c | 157.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 54c | 155.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 50c | 155$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 23c | 152.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 54c | 148.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 145.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…ea5cbacked No | 29c | 142.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 132.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 32c | 131.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…3201backed Yes | 50c | 117.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a1…58c1backed Yes | 33c | 111$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 22c | 110$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 40c | 100.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed No | 56c | 98.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…c017backed No | 64c | 91.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 48c | 82.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 29c | 81.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 23c | 79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…bed4backed Yes | 62c | 77.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…959fbacked Yes | 66c | 72.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…9182backed Yes | 61c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 62c | 64.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6de…7ed9backed Yes | 63c | 63.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 47c | 63.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…b968backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…3dd6backed Yes | 51c | 58.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…56ccbacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 40c | 50.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…f779backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…0464backed Yes | 51c | 49.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes | 42c | 47.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…9281backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c5…2831backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 67c | 39.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…5f22backed Yes | 38c | 36.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 45c | 31.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…7c47backed No | 54c | 31.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…8963backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4a23backed No | 70c | 28.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eab…72d7backed No | 50c | 24.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…998dbacked Yes | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…ee2abacked Yes | 50c | 21.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4659…58e6backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…c90ebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…e3e1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x107f…505cbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7383…7f14backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…514cbacked No | 68c | 18.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…d3ebbacked Yes | 72c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…c9d7backed Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 80c | 15.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.