TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,887 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes53c3,783$2,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.314,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c1,717$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f46…1bbabacked No5c1,072$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6712125.6%31 W · 90 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes37c1,029$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.6260235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc631…9655backed Yes45c562.85$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.253663.9%23 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc55f…d26abacked Yes70c558.29$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.298637.2%32 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb392…fc73backed Yes64c513.42$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.213138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1584…71b6backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105350.9%27 W · 26 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x302a…8227backed Yes77c499.27$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.853743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes51c444.52$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.389954.5%54 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ffc…9107backed Yes72c442.84$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.84757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed Yes79c430.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6415749.7%78 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde64…6ad7backed Yes67c402.78$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.94346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No42c399.99$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.039649%47 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4c8…441dbacked Yes55c354.67$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.311154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No39c344.23$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.154254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b55…f0febacked Yes44c300.61$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.171457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes52c290.65$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4181234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No50c283.59$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.782,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No64c275.42$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1684759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc15c…6549backed Yes46c258.1$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.12556%14 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb905…1640backed No55c240.3$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.138747.1%41 W · 46 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes63c201$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4932044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0149…fa64backed No31c199.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624037.5%15 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes35c180.11$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.398738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefb9…7828backed Yes74c167.4$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.125560%33 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de1…6707backed Yes44c167.13$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285b…23cebacked Yes74c157.22$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.37425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No54c155.67$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.865756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8864…3ed5backed Yes50c155$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.853259.4%19 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes23c152.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.89230.4%28 W · 64 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes54c148.44$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.661861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes34c145.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.832,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0197…ea5cbacked No29c142.48$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No56c132.82$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.537,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes32c131.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9524432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes44c130$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7366735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd73c…3201backed Yes50c117.76$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a1…58c1backed Yes33c111$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.37333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f3…48e4backed Yes22c110$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.286264.5%40 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bad…08a1backed Yes40c100.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.684148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5021641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc107…0137backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228016.3%13 W · 67 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555944.1%26 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7517334.7%60 W · 113 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1246423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf30…6a42backed No56c98.7$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919a…c017backed No64c91.72$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes48c82.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.021,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea02…23d1backed Yes29c81.13$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.633318.2%6 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca9b…217fbacked Yes54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes23c79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7832310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4b…bed4backed Yes62c77.42$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.421080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No25c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7515759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e16…959fbacked Yes66c72.67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-49.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0fe…9182backed Yes61c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc38d…48e3backed Yes62c64.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.491952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6de…7ed9backed Yes63c63.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes47c63.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.915752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc33…58efbacked Yes32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.52450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eec…be17backed Yes54c61.11$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.113525.7%9 W · 26 L-7.7wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe87a…b968backed Yes56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51de…c4d1backed No47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.28852.3%46 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e85…3dd6backed Yes51c58.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66cb…56ccbacked Yes37c55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.851421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes65c53.85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8511172.1%80 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes40c50.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1672726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3772125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8342…f779backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a7…0464backed Yes51c49.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.44862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes42c47.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.731526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e7…9281backed Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c5…2831backed Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked No64c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.42035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4cf…78c4backed No67c39.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.337261.1%44 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbec…5f22backed Yes38c36.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No55c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.13,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x494d…0804backed Yes45c31.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.583063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+53.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7190…7c47backed No54c31.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab0…8963backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.252055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No79c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.727246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45c1…4a23backed No70c28.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201978.9%15 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6eab…72d7backed No50c24.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b8c…998dbacked Yes72c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.721369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+20.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d75…ee2abacked Yes50c21.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+64.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4659…58e6backed Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a0…c90ebacked Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda64…e3e1backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x107f…505cbacked Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7383…7f14backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8761…514cbacked No68c18.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15f9…d3ebbacked Yes72c17.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.953100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x566a…c9d7backed Yes66c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.44837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No80c15.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4143713.3%58 W · 379 L-78.8wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked No76c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.352638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.