Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc80eb1b2c4ce5ed0f15fd2776d3da7788623746f217cef032803851dcf9e20f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 1c | 3,953$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 0c | 3,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 2c | 2,446$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 54c | 1,449$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.69 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 47c | 1,323$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 967.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 64c | 854.42$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.77 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 52c | 827.65$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.74 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 793.62$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 50c | 685.18$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.17 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed No | 27c | 656$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.86 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 44c | 593$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.86 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 50c | 391.76$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.26 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 26c | 323.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 39c | 285.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.48 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 13c | 273.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.33 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 270.43$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 265.97$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.48 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 44c | 244.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 34c | 243.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.45 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 7c | 240$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…0339backed Yes | 30c | 223.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.96 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 29c | 198.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…c6f8backed Yes | 54c | 189.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 183.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 57c | 178.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 56c | 165.86$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 27c | 161.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 58c | 160$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…b107backed No | 49c | 154.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 43c | 134.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 47c | 129.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 129$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed Yes | 32c | 128.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 46c | 125$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 121.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 53c | 109.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 40c | 107.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 54c | 101.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 42c | 96.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 51c | 96.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 31c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 15c | 77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 49c | 70.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…1dd2backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 77c | 53.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 26c | 53.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 54c | 52.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c06…4e2ebacked No | 79c | 50.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…5de4backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed No | 74c | 46.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed No | 67c | 44.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd7…b7bfbacked Yes | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 47c | 32.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 32.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 41c | 24.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 55c | 23.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…7289backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…47c8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or below on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or higher on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.