Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x519cc6140a2de5c5973ca1b42739348236b8de78e7325f20010a974c6a039653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 28c | 5,268$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.88 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,802$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 67c | 2,889$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.16 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 1,747$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 15c | 1,381$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.35 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,300$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,272$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,098$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 70c | 963.15$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.99 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 51c | 943.11$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.65 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 18c | 705.33$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.35 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…7f33backed No | 54c | 700.97$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.43 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed No | 59c | 699.99$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 6c | 694.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed No | 38c | 649.54$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.38 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 7c | 599.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 6c | 590.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 513.89$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 62c | 502.93$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.27 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 13c | 441.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 10c | 424.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 66c | 328$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.69 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 316.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 60c | 305.67$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.79 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…0346backed Yes | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…b107backed Yes | 41c | 295.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 60c | 287.34$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 261.64$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 23c | 261.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 45c | 249.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…e7c7backed Yes | 60c | 248.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 13c | 229$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 200.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…01c8backed Yes | 38c | 193.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 41c | 188.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked No | 34c | 183$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 39c | 171.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 13c | 166.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…e004backed No | 72c | 150.52$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 69c | 133.47$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 38c | 132.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 34c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 23c | 124.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 34c | 119.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 38c | 109.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…c6f8backed Yes | 17c | 102.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 76c | 101.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e1…d554backed Yes | 53c | 94.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 50c | 92.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…6521backed Yes | 41c | 89.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 89.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 22c | 86.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x525a…0024backed Yes | 52c | 78.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 46c | 62.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c06…4e2ebacked Yes | 23c | 58.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 59c | 57.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 56c | 56.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Yes | 37c | 54.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 51c | 52.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 46c | 50.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 41c | 50.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…d430backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 41c | 49.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 35c | 49.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked No | 67c | 44.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes | 30c | 37.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 68c | 36.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 43c | 34.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08db…5786backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 65c | 17.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…f0febacked Yes | 69c | 17.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732c…a3c3backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or below on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or higher on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.