TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,892
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,027

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,892 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4eec…be17backed Yes28c5,268$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.883525.7%9 W · 26 L-7.7wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes2c3,802$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9138410.7%41 W · 343 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+103.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302a…8227backed Yes67c2,889$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.163743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes24c1,747$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.774,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes1c1,550$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.672726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes15c1,381$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.3532310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes10c1,300$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.636731.3%21 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c1,272$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.942,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes6c1,098$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed No70c963.15$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.9930144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc631…9655backed Yes51c943.11$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.653663.9%23 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes18c705.33$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3564021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f57…7f33backed No54c700.97$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.431625%4 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c1…c739backed No59c699.99$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2874233.3%14 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes6c694.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.681,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3c0…d212backed No38c649.54$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.385125.5%13 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes7c599.61$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9696620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes6c590.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.820728%58 W · 149 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c513.89$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.6112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No62c502.93$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.273948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes13c441.18$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.371,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes10c424.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5412125.6%31 W · 90 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f70…d13abacked Yes3c335$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.059433.4%32 W · 911 L-1.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No66c328$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.695756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes5c316.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.821,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes60c305.67$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7917334.7%60 W · 113 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5571…0346backed Yes45c299.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes10c299.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2912624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed5…b107backed Yes41c295.93$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34f3…48e4backed No60c287.34$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.66264.5%40 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No62c261.64$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9584759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes23c261.44$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1338515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes45c249.98$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.995944.1%26 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39e…e7c7backed Yes60c248.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes13c229$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2398738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes35c200.87$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.592,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ba6…01c8backed Yes38c193.42$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7340%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe966…0228backed Yes41c188.04$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.751816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d82…04dbbacked No34c183$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7810227.5%28 W · 74 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes39c171.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.791,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes13c166.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.32035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x150a…e004backed No72c150.52$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.52837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefb9…7828backed Yes69c133.47$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.725560%33 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes38c132.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc55f…d26abacked Yes34c125$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.58637.2%32 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca9b…217fbacked Yes23c124.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.13444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc15c…6549backed Yes34c119.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402556%14 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes38c109.62$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9421350.2%107 W · 106 L+19.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6cef…c6f8backed Yes17c102.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd49e…5110backed Yes76c101.08$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.68924.7%22 W · 67 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4127246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e1…d554backed Yes53c94.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes50c92.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9266735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b9…6521backed Yes41c89.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid+6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c89.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.397,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes22c86.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x525a…0024backed Yes52c78.69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x869b…7ab2backed No72c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.62065%13 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f8…f8d5backed No46c62.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4954529.5%161 W · 384 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9224432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c06…4e2ebacked Yes23c58.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.66837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8e…5593backed Yes59c57.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343253.1%17 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes56c56.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3215752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e62…0b71backed Yes37c54.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes51c52.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.524643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2bad…08a1backed Yes46c50.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.494148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6611…2859backed Yes41c50.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.411643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d27…d430backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x362c…9071backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc90d…148dbacked Yes41c49.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes35c49.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.162,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…e3cabacked No67c44.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.851752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2215759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes30c37.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.351526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffc…9107backed Yes68c36.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes43c34.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1543842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No55c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.291,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x494d…0804backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+53.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08db…5786backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed Yes68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf0…0274backed No63c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.45429.6%16 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.69,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes65c17.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.251369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b55…f0febacked Yes69c17.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732c…a3c3backed No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.