TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,867,564
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,616,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,867,564 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c1,047,442$3,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,087.42160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c474,532$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.21362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c453,504$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.45296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-86.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c274,146$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.14651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes0c139,901$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+272%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c119,999$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1905111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5256…304cbacked Yes0c65,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d50…b166backed Yes0c62,163$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.99210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c39,999$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3797…efeabacked Yes0c30,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c29,584$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.038122.2%18 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+75%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes0c25,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+451.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c24,884$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5414315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c23,006$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0422927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed Yes0c23,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5230%0 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8f…722bbacked Yes0c21,500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202412.5%3 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+224.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2d…9417backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…169bbacked Yes0c14,638$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.38200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c14,332$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd5…63ebbacked Yes0c13,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c13,025$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.13214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c12,560$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c12,250$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes0c12,250$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa1…7c65backed Yes0c11,729$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes1c11,280$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.677416.2%12 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+231.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes0c10,881$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7616334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe933…9c08backed Yes0c10,160$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc157…728cbacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick1cpaid+1,487.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f24…a7fcbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+446.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1697…b4d5backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500b…17c5backed Yes0c9,200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1127backed Yes0c9,200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b205backed Yes0c8,750$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes0c8,498$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.99283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f8d…0002backed Yes0c8,400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa719…0f74backed Yes0c8,398$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.48110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f1…80f2backed Yes0c8,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+152.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes0c8,250$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3441…3283backed Yes0c7,700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1230%0 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a62…8b90backed Yes0c7,250$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes0c7,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24300%0 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dad…221ebacked Yes0c6,923$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd9…8b81backed Yes0c6,923$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eda…1c80backed Yes0c6,700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf883…115cbacked Yes0c6,666$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3380%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f84…8d1dbacked Yes0c6,457$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfdb…d762backed Yes0c6,420$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.98100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes0c6,230$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.69260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes1c5,714$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405335.8%19 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03bd…9762backed Yes0c5,380$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b9f…a24fbacked Yes1c5,370$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b47…ab73backed Yes0c5,113$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3b…05aebacked Yes0c5,113$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4372…e579backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea4…dd30backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd815…a05abacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dbe…d681backed Yes0c4,950$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6402…a05bbacked Yes0c4,750$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes0c4,168$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.16533.8%2 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e4…498cbacked Yes0c4,119$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e29…9744backed Yes0c4,043$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf586…3a20backed Yes0c3,950$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe057…8061backed Yes0c3,887$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91c4…013ebacked Yes0c3,880$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ee…617fbacked Yes0c3,877$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x088c…e973backed Yes0c3,723$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c0…f3ccbacked Yes0c3,703$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9612…5e79backed Yes0c3,657$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06d3…3dc2backed Yes0c3,593$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bc6…e7b1backed Yes0c3,497$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a2…8134backed Yes0c3,490$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc329…ebfdbacked Yes0c3,480$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe031…8853backed Yes0c3,477$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f1…0492backed Yes0c3,430$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,403$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.78673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cb…4064backed Yes0c3,357$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes1c3,293$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f88…b10ebacked Yes1c2,825$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…d708backed Yes1c2,664$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes1c2,642$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…feccbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes1c2,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a10…63d3backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3709…a49cbacked Yes1c2,495$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d9b…9227backed Yes1c1,675$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeff…7353backed Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0384…728cbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.