TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,629,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,529,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,629,156 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c630,173$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.7414315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes0c349,992$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.973212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+255.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a9d…0effbacked Yes0c297,460$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.461010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+62.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c191,029$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.3422927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeac…0216backed Yes1c142,692$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.2970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b46…1263backed Yes0c99,951$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.95100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes0c98,770$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.771010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ff…ba79backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-81.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76d8…0486backed Yes0c47,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c43,916$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.58651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d50…b166backed Yes0c42,219$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.38210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c39,999$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes1c38,954$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.72462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+272%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3560…7585backed Yes0c38,816$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c37,099$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-86.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c34,218$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.53468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid+96.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c30,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcecf…e206backed Yes0c25,833$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf31a…8fbcbacked Yes0c25,833$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick1cpaid+1,415.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x786a…94a7backed Yes1c25,160$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.43195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+247.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe4…dd93backed Yes0c22,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772c…0151backed Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100287.1%2 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid+227%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf605…231fbacked Yes0c18,846$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f8f…722bbacked Yes0c18,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2613…8527backed Yes0c17,895$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c15,506$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.46214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c15,115$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c14,950$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe607…91fcbacked Yes0c14,320$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3250%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15b0…78f7backed Yes1c14,092$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacb…45d7backed Yes1c13,081$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9612…205abacked Yes1c13,000$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f1c…f106backed Yes0c12,810$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfc…4516backed Yes0c12,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f48…8ba3backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b76…3a40backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c5…d2a3backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c10,525$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.058122.2%18 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+75%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd15…4a07backed Yes1c10,394$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+738.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd85a…615abacked Yes3c10,361$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd93b…62b2backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc454…8c31backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b79…5921backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-62.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d9b…9227backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74a2…564cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0284…6620backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes1c9,868$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.34260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes1c9,482$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003327.3%9 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaff…87e3backed Yes1c9,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes0c7,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9326…594ebacked Yes1c6,753$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes0c6,750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes1c6,666$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.332030%6 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes0c6,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26300%0 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ea…ba53backed Yes1c6,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7534…c561backed Yes1c5,975$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9629…b148backed Yes1c5,954$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a62…8b90backed Yes0c5,750$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b205backed Yes0c5,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c5,105$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.216520%13 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1fd…378cbacked Yes1c5,080$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc157…728cbacked Yes1c5,039$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.93714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick1cpaid+1,487.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0114…fbfabacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0259…33c9backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f1…80f2backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+152.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…169bbacked Yes0c5,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3797…efeabacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf883…115cbacked Yes1c4,958$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7980%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eda…1c80backed Yes0c4,750$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes1c4,700$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes0c4,622$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.49911.1%1 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick1cpaid+1,134.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes0c4,172$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.594330.2%13 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+173.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c4,036$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c4,022$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.27673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…7b37backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-84.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c3,980$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.741074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3441…3283backed Yes0c3,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15230%0 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1127backed Yes0c3,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,633$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.53664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500b…17c5backed Yes0c3,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8d…0002backed Yes0c3,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes1c3,384$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.72412.5%3 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+224.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc067…ecadbacked Yes1c3,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a10…63d3backed Yes1c3,162$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9790%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c3,138$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.16504%2 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes2c3,096$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.83333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd815…a05abacked Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad10…6347backed Yes1c2,994$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Yes1c2,884$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c0…15f9backed Yes1c2,843$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcdb…83cabacked Yes0c2,700$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe920…3a14backed Yes0c2,603$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbef…dfa0backed Yes0c2,600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd7…047abacked Yes1c2,343$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c2,337$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.34533.8%2 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes1c2,203$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.832810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+174.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1463…ce78backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe29f…b2f0backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.