TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,084,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,155,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,084,448 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c397,080$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.32219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick3cpaid-63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Yes0c359,840$1,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.06210%0 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c287,999$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.0414315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c3…9089backed Yes0c249,355$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c224,037$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.01170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c187,485$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.42362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ff…ba79backed Yes0c170,409$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.41714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-81.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b46…1263backed Yes0c99,947$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.95100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c87,595$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.42651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c69,999$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2105111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c69,308$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.31254%1 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-91.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d50…b166backed Yes0c50,365$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.09210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x549b…80dabacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c44,997$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.99561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3793…cf49backed Yes0c36,687$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes0c35,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-89.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3560…7585backed Yes0c33,220$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.22160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes1c30,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507425.7%19 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes1c27,550$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.757416.2%12 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+231.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52fa…bbc5backed Yes0c25,705$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.41714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255819%11 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503625%9 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes0c24,999$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick1cpaid+1,134.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c20,406$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0322927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb64…f3a1backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20417.3%3 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-79.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5945…4c69backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cda…e01dbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-92.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3f…3706backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes0c19,897$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.074012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes0c19,351$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.459333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa383…c71dbacked Yes0c19,282$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e59…aa0dbacked Yes2c15,639$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772c…0151backed Yes0c15,250$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61287.1%2 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid+227%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x943f…43a7backed Yes1c14,286$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick1cpaid+412.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0785…6b03backed Yes0c13,323$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes0c13,125$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143020%6 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61f…4ff2backed Yes0c12,775$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb69…4563backed Yes0c12,465$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f8…58babacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ddb…9ffabacked Yes0c11,047$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b76…3a40backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a43…5374backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a87…c533backed Yes1c10,302$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.08616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca09…1b05backed Yes0c10,160$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c5…b611backed Yes0c10,150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501b…5aebbacked Yes0c10,140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8226…0ea2backed Yes0c10,130$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6cc…ff07backed Yes0c10,100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502412.5%3 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+224.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d7…f58dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…62b2backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…dbc6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe432…934abacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+166.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe82a…b78bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f24…c7f0backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d3…6fc9backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3797…efeabacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes0c9,952$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7216334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c9,446$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.03583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+202.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…991abacked Yes1c9,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45616.7%1 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick1cpaid+1,751.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa738…424abacked Yes0c8,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c7,989$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.46210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c7,807$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.64296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-86.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x038d…d501backed Yes0c7,653$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b9…1284backed Yes0c7,625$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes0c7,542$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63300%0 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9337…a410backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+296.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes1c6,900$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.47626.3%20 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed Yes0c6,802$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.93230%0 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c6,707$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.978122.2%18 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+75%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes0c6,450$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes0c6,038$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.234330.2%13 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+173.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff3…8c08backed Yes0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-88.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c15…944dbacked Yes0c6,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1df…9628backed Yes0c5,905$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006a…d199backed Yes0c5,795$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0e90…1df3backed Yes1c5,691$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.681040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d7…e943backed Yes0c5,600$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf883…115cbacked Yes0c5,555$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c5,345$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.31283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd662…aeb5backed Yes0c5,197$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes0c5,105$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.864526.7%12 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+191.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c5,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26520%13 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…8aa6backed Yes0c5,095$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.38250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick1cpaid+4,445.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc74d…aad7backed Yes0c5,056$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c7…e19dbacked Yes0c5,050$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f1…80f2backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+152.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66a2…169bbacked Yes0c4,950$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c4,871$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.72673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f1…8f92backed Yes1c4,667$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x715c…6670backed Yes0c4,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes0c4,250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe50…b05cbacked Yes1c3,961$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b205backed Yes0c3,950$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes0c3,771$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes2c3,761$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef4…006cbacked Yes0c3,735$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.