TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,682,675
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,036,023

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,682,675 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c1,132,974$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,552.1214315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c1,057,963$3,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,929.94362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6421backed Yes0c296,743$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.9290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c247,314$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.26160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c123,367$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.73651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c119,999$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2905111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c100,156$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1622927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b46…1263backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d0…908bbacked Yes0c90,605$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d50…b166backed Yes0c65,669$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.01210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c37,050$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.47214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c34,829$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.478122.2%18 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+75%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes0c30,971$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.716334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes1c30,181$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.397723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c27,507$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-86.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c27,482$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.96170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x943f…43a7backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick1cpaid+412.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3797…efeabacked Yes0c25,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes1c21,816$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.67416.2%12 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+231.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed Yes0c20,800$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9230%0 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff60…bb86backed Yes0c19,660$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes0c17,640$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdb…d762backed Yes0c13,705$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.06100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes1c12,840$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0510235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe876…1d22backed Yes1c11,460$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec7…32a1backed Yes0c10,160$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60267.7%2 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-88.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4129…4dc9backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb953…d956backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9687…8fd9backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+272%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a42…fab9backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401010%1 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick3cpaid-51.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc171…aa19backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes1c9,999$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8314835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xddc7…89efbacked Yes0c9,768$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x500b…17c5backed Yes0c9,750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1127backed Yes0c9,750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…991abacked Yes1c9,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45616.7%1 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick1cpaid+1,751.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0862…9e24backed Yes0c8,740$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb08…ee59backed Yes0c8,553$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8d…0002backed Yes0c8,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a62…8b90backed Yes0c8,050$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe30d…9362backed Yes0c8,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes0c7,700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+451.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f3…492fbacked Yes0c7,667$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a5…4d0bbacked Yes0c7,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…0ae8backed Yes0c7,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes0c7,350$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eda…1c80backed Yes0c7,350$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ca…c72fbacked Yes1c6,432$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…169bbacked Yes0c6,350$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3200%0 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f1…80f2backed Yes0c6,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+152.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes0c6,192$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.573212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+255.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3441…3283backed Yes0c6,100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3230%0 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe680…bdbbbacked Yes0c5,750$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f14…ec62backed Yes0c5,600$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c5,450$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff56…100fbacked Yes0c5,366$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61b4…47b2backed Yes0c5,343$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e62…5773backed Yes0c5,311$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa719…0f74backed Yes0c5,291$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.07110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes1c5,017$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.792810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+174.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4db…dcc7backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b2f…f3f6backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick2cpaid+112.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x503c…4574backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-71.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6402…a05bbacked Yes0c4,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dbe…d681backed Yes0c4,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b205backed Yes0c4,650$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2210%0 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes0c4,650$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe920…3a14backed Yes0c4,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f28…c35abacked Yes0c4,390$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c4,140$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.38695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa409…82bdbacked Yes1c4,105$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,755$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.71673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe11…990bbacked Yes0c3,750$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa949…e7bebacked Yes0c3,750$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f07…9cf5backed Yes0c3,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c3,496$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.18283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbef…dfa0backed Yes0c3,250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc074…b437backed Yes0c2,978$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd385…8cecbacked Yes0c2,968$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5c…430ebacked Yes0c2,958$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c34…bfe5backed Yes0c2,908$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefe1…8b10backed Yes0c2,895$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa826…dd25backed Yes0c2,893$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c2,860$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.27583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+202.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5d…3b26backed Yes0c2,820$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…1169backed Yes0c2,815$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c7f…5576backed Yes0c2,798$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…ada9backed Yes0c2,798$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…0d17backed Yes0c2,793$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1523…2115backed Yes0c2,778$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes1c2,777$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes1c2,775$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.41425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9612…5e79backed Yes0c2,728$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes0c2,691$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.28533.8%2 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc236…bbf5backed Yes0c2,643$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1103…282abacked Yes0c2,635$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd815…a05abacked Yes1c2,600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.