TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,904,251
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,575,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,904,251 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 491 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9337…a410backed Yes3c698,302$17,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,545.02277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+296.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes3c198,741$6,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,109.4916334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c150,313$2,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.6322927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x786a…94a7backed Yes2c117,925$2,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,868.71195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+247.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6d…551abacked Yes3c104,898$2,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes1c103,775$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,544.85214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-89.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes2c103,073$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.9714315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes3c69,004$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.42718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes3c63,665$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.52352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes2c60,700$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.398140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes2c58,472$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.26323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebae…fb79backed Yes3c41,737$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes3c40,361$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.367425.7%19 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c37,904$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.99673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes3c37,552$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.9814835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes2c37,488$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.62468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid+96.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c34,387$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.88651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a48…497ebacked Yes2c34,033$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.991735.3%6 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+136.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b12…42e2backed Yes2c31,459$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5046…7676backed Yes2c30,627$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b7…ba77backed Yes1c29,205$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4447…e040backed Yes2c28,373$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.923327.3%9 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+86.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb60b…5726backed Yes2c28,169$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed Yes2c27,931$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.785819%11 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed Yes4c25,152$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c24,525$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.35695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x482d…ba5ebacked Yes3c24,077$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.382157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af7…2381backed Yes2c20,664$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+313.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes2c20,422$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.210630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes2c20,000$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes2c19,951$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.16943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c19,137$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.96664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c18,932$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.951074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc64b…516dbacked Yes3c16,497$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.35911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+817.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c15,834$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.56520%13 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes2c15,783$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.858122.2%18 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+75%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes1c15,363$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.091711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-74.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5228…6a87backed Yes1c15,121$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes6c14,486$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.28128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+163%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d64…738ebacked Yes5c13,364$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.911010%1 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick3cpaid+126.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe260…aca1backed Yes2c12,922$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c12,859$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.48185.6%1 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid+530.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6220…a452backed Yes2c12,415$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bc…30ddbacked Yes3c12,306$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed Yes2c11,944$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.74214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick15cpaid-92.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c11,597$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.79185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+276.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9977…1b40backed Yes2c11,295$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes3c11,244$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.729333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes2c11,177$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.047416.2%12 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+231.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c10,976$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.021478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfde5…1c14backed Yes2c10,797$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd0…93acbacked Yes3c10,769$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…bb84backed Yes3c10,551$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.331816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+323%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes2c10,499$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.48267.7%2 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-88.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa227…2d40backed Yes3c10,347$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6374…f883backed Yes2c10,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb401…616abacked Yes2c9,849$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772c…0151backed Yes3c9,584$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.23287.1%2 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid+227%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b2…296ebacked Yes1c9,217$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.831442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+208.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5d1a…e943backed Yes2c8,997$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3560…7585backed Yes2c8,984$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ad…d413backed Yes1c8,948$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5856…e2b1backed Yes2c8,853$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-48.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c8,832$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.65533.8%2 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3f…8728backed Yes2c8,696$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5197…0ce6backed Yes1c8,651$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec5e…3d71backed Yes2c8,507$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.273928.2%11 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+345.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes3c8,316$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.9110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a0…18e4backed Yes3c8,229$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf747…7d29backed Yes2c8,121$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c64…4e93backed Yes2c7,843$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes4c7,749$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.477626.3%20 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6312…612dbacked Yes4c7,644$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes2c7,624$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.615111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+132.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2639…4b5bbacked Yes2c7,576$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ddb…9ffabacked Yes3c7,563$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.6214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df2abacked Yes2c7,373$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85a7…2072backed Yes4c7,235$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a9d…0effbacked Yes1c7,220$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.671010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+62.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x722c…09ebbacked Yes2c7,178$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.144924.5%12 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+134.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ff…fc59backed Yes2c6,761$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.18220%0 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf76f…df4fbacked Yes3c6,602$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.96166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-89.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf8…4103backed Yes2c6,441$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1683…06edbacked Yes3c6,428$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+491.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf08c…4dc4backed Yes3c6,075$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2128…ba59backed Yes2c5,982$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410b…cf55backed Yes2c5,875$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.44119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+83.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2d…9417backed Yes1c5,857$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de8…76babacked Yes2c5,705$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…8086backed Yes2c5,614$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde48…30e7backed Yes5c5,578$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.85333%1 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes2c5,526$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1387…24a7backed Yes1c5,526$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd6…e69cbacked Yes2c5,475$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf06…1588backed Yes2c5,400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c5,203$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.02224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+247.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb361…808ebacked Yes4c5,133$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.221650%8 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+168%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes2c5,129$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcecf…e206backed Yes2c5,026$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.