TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb361…808e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
121
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
0

Best Category: Music, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Music at 60 out of 100; worst UFC at 51.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT8652.3%45 W · 41 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$572Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$571.97
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,049Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+78.5%+$1,608.63
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,534Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$470.4
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$697Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$174.2
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,514Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$1,353.44
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.8
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$936Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$936
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,075Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$604.79
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,080
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,798Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+63.5%+$1,142.38
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,137Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$362.63
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,899Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+143.3%+$2,721.22
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+203%+$805.85
France vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$929Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+150%+$1,393.8
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$404.02
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$2,081.8
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,350.43
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$945Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$804.97
Norway vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$84.93
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.04
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$613Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$443.81
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+203%+$435.46
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+168%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Music — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,485Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,484.9
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$757Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$757.38
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.22
Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.6
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.98
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.09
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.63
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.46
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$250
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$338.25
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$433Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+52.2%+$225.82
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,446Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+123.4%+$1,783.99
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+104.8%+$175.65
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+864.7%+$486.06
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+762.1%+$490.62
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+1,392.5%+$811.18
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP (Doubles): Helioevaara/Patten vs Kokkinakis/Kovacevicbacked Kokkinakis/Kovacevic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.2
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.38
Wimbledon ATP: Jenson Brooksby vs Ignacio Busebacked Jenson Brooksby · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$117.6
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Ruzic (+1.5)backed Ruzic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.2
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.64
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Tyra Caterina Grantbacked Tyra Caterina Grant · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$384
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritzbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+110.8%+$184
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondarbacked Anna Blinkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$384
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)backed Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$68.63
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.43
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5)backed Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinskabacked Diana Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.09
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaiderbacked Diana Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$215.93
All 13 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+50.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Cricket — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$646Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$303.97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.