Music · resolved market
Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64d6ac49538d6825ecb4d6064dcbddaff22882a03140ae9b8173478e8ef2404f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe82…5c81backed Yes | 1c | 6,728$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +76%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…808ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,641$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +168%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,178$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 5,629$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…e040backed Yes | 3c | 5,160$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 2c | 4,489$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 2c | 3,925$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed Yes | 2c | 3,162$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +231.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…b73cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,981$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…5b28backed Yes | 3c | 2,824$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7365backed Yes | 5c | 2,688$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85d…6259backed Yes | 5c | 2,684$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3883…de28backed Yes | 7c | 2,379$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…9269backed Yes | 4c | 2,294$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…3ed9backed Yes | 5c | 2,293$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…a410backed Yes | 2c | 2,258$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +296.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90c…658abacked Yes | 5c | 2,232$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7928…7ffabacked Yes | 5c | 2,070$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…62c1backed Yes | 4c | 2,030$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3352…df64backed Yes | 5c | 1,900$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…6638backed Yes | 5c | 1,887$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…eb06backed Yes | 3c | 1,826$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…c3d1backed Yes | 5c | 1,682$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…0151backed Yes | 3c | 1,642$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +227%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f1…3ecebacked Yes | 1c | 1,556$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…52c0backed Yes | 3c | 1,497$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,442$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…9832backed Yes | 1c | 1,430$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,378$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1e…12d9backed Yes | 5c | 1,368$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…3731backed Yes | 5c | 1,357$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,347$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +345.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 3c | 1,256$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e36…a3c0backed Yes | 5c | 1,222$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,141$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…0684backed Yes | 5c | 1,139$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf3…c3d9backed Yes | 5c | 1,131$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…f3a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,068$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…11cebacked Yes | 3c | 1,052$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 3c | 955.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…931ebacked Yes | 2c | 900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7551…b569backed Yes | 2c | 900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…8f97backed Yes | 11c | 895.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 834.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe47…b917backed Yes | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…ee3abacked Yes | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…3c57backed Yes | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 2c | 742.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…bb8dbacked Yes | 2c | 738.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…b7a2backed Yes | 5c | 706$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…a1a2backed Yes | 3c | 645.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…c88dbacked Yes | 2c | 616.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 2c | 589.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…ba32backed Yes | 6c | 514.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f46…3950backed Yes | 4c | 504.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked Yes | 3c | 495.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a48…497ebacked Yes | 2c | 489.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28db…2aaebacked Yes | 4c | 425.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 3c | 393.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabad…6183backed Yes | 3c | 391.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…6927backed Yes | 10c | 164.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +234.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Albania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Armenia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Austria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Czechia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Georgia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Latvia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Montenegro win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Portugal win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Serbia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Switzerland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will United Kingdom win the televote for Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.